•  30
    False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty Assessment
    with James S. Risbey
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 373 (2055): 20140453. 2015.
    An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent’s uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection …Read more
  •  174
    Understanding pluralism in climate modeling
    Foundations of Science 11 (4): 349-368. 2006.
    To study Earth’s climate, scientists now use a variety of computer simulation models. These models disagree in some of their assumptions about the climate system, yet they are used together as complementary resources for investigating future climatic change. This paper examines and defends this use of incompatible models. I argue that climate model pluralism results both from uncertainty concerning how to best represent the climate system and from difficulties faced in evaluating the relative me…Read more
  •  30
    Comparative Process Tracing and Climate Change Fingerprints
    Philosophy of Science 77 (5): 1083-1095. 2010.
    Climate change fingerprint studies investigate the causes of recent climate change. I argue that these studies have much in common with Steel’s (2008) streamlined comparative process tracing, illustrating a mechanisms-based approach to extrapolation in which the mechanisms of interest are simulated rather than physically instantiated. I then explain why robustness and variety-of-evidence considerations turn out to be important for understanding the evidential value of climate change fingerprint …Read more
  •  109
    Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty, ensembles and probability
    Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 41 (3): 263-272. 2010.
    Simulation-based weather and climate prediction now involves the use of methods that reflect a deep concern with uncertainty. These methods, known as ensemble prediction methods, produce multiple simulations for predictive periods of interest, using different initial conditions, parameter values and/or model structures. This paper provides a non-technical overview of current ensemble methods and considers how the results of studies employing these methods should be interpreted, paying special at…Read more
  •  149
    Introduction: Simulation, Visualization, and Scientific Understanding
    Perspectives on Science 22 (3): 311-317. 2014.
    Only a decade ago, the topic of scientific understanding remained one that philosophers of science largely avoided. Earlier discussions by Hempel and others had branded scientific understanding a mere subjective state or feeling, one to be studied by psychologists perhaps, but not an important or fruitful focus for philosophers of science. Even as scientific explanation became a central topic in philosophy of science, little attention was given to understanding. Over the last decade, however, th…Read more