I'm an Applied Epistemologist. My dissertation on causation led to a postdoc in Bayesian networks and then applied artificial intelligence. So, I now work in both human and machine forecasting and data science, trying to improve how we get from data to knowledge.
From 2016 I've been with KeyW Corporation working on big data projects for DARPA and other government customers. I maintain an affiliation with George Mason University, and hope to apply our SciCast Bayesian market to forecasting and modeling replication in the social sciences. (See below.) Prior to KeyW I supported the Defense Suicide Prevention Office data analysis for a year.
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I'm an Applied Epistemologist. My dissertation on causation led to a postdoc in Bayesian networks and then applied artificial intelligence. So, I now work in both human and machine forecasting and data science, trying to improve how we get from data to knowledge.
From 2016 I've been with KeyW Corporation working on big data projects for DARPA and other government customers. I maintain an affiliation with George Mason University, and hope to apply our SciCast Bayesian market to forecasting and modeling replication in the social sciences. (See below.) Prior to KeyW I supported the Defense Suicide Prevention Office data analysis for a year.
From 2011-2015 I led the George Mason University team for IARPA ACE and ForeST. We used a Bayesian prediction market and placed a proud if distant second to Good Judgment in the ACE geopolitical forecasting tournament. We then moved to ForeST (Forecasting Science & Technology) and completed development of our combinatorial market / fully crowdsourced Bayes net elicitation engine, SciCast.
My interests include causal modeling, reasoning, and inference; Bayesian modeling; natural reasoning; intelligence analysis methodology. I'm still fascinated by the history and philosophy of science, but I'm much more applied these days.
I look forward to doing more hiking. Always.
