• How Globalization Shifts the Global Economic and Political Balance
    Journal of Chinese Philosophy 1-13. forthcoming.
    One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states. The World System core starts weakening while its periphery gains strength. At the same time there is a continuing divergenc…Read more
  •  2
    Seven Weaknesses of the U.S., Donald Trump, and the Future of American Hegemony
    with Andrey Korotayev
    World Futures 77 (1): 23-54. 2021.
    Over a long period, the main intrigue within the current global contradiction has been the resistance of most of the world community to the growing egoism of the USA, which is not willing to consid...
  • Sovereignty Transformation and Philosophy
    Proceedings of the XXIII World Congress of Philosophy 51 93-97. 2018.
    The process of globalization undoubtedly contributes to the change and reduction of the scope of state sovereign powers. We consider these transformations to be among the most important ones. However, the reduction of sovereignty is sometimes a destructive process, which leads to the disintegration of states and numerous human tragedies. Overall, in the globalization processes the speed of the destruction of old relations often exceeds the speed of the formation of the new ones. Thus, philosophy…Read more
  • Globalistics and Globalization Studies. Aspects & Dimensions of Global Views (edited book)
    with Ilya V. Ilyin and Andrey V. Korotayev
    . 2014.
  •  190
    Революционные события 1917–1920 гг. в России не только потрясли мир в момент их совершения, но и существенно, даже круто изменили его, причем это влияние в течение десятилетий возрастало. Социали-стическая революция в России вызвала мощный резонанс в мире, стала новым направлением развития. Речь идет не только о силе примера, о повторении события в других обществах. Ее воздействие и шире, и глубже. Она существенно изменила систему мирового порядка в ХХ в. В статье рассмотрен аспект данного влиян…Read more
  •  134
    Тема государства и государственности – одна из важнейших в социальных науках. В этом плане можно считать неслучайным рост интереса к такому аспекту, как национальное или государ-ственное строительство в молодых государствах, а также к про-блеме так называемых несостоявшихся или недееспособных госу-дарств (failed states). Эти вопросы важно рассматривать не толь-ко в современном аспекте, но также в исторической ретроспективе и в широком, мир-системном масштабе. В настоящей статье данные проблемы р…Read more
  •  81
    Есть исследователи, проблематика работ и теории которых остаются актуальными длительное время и после их смерти. К числу таких, несом- ненно, относится и Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев – замечательный российский экономист, один из тех, чье имя довольно широко известно и за рубежом. И актуальность его идей тем более важно отметить в ознаме-нование 125-летнего юбилея Н. Д. Кондратьева, который мы отпраздновали в прошлом 2017 году. Именно этой теме – связи творчества Кондратьева и проблем современно…Read more
  • Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff (edited book)
    Uchitel Publishing House. 2014.
  •  88
    Cyclical Dynamics in Economics and Politics in the Past and in the Future
    with Tessaleno C. Devezas and Andrey V. Korotayev
    In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff., Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-24. 2014.
    Nikolay Kondratieff is known primarily for his theory of long cycles. However, it is worth recalling that he was among the first who started to investigate the nature of different economic cycles and their systematic interaction. Actually the primary classification of cycles into short, medium and long belongs to Kondratieff.
  •  338
    Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles
    with Andrey Korotayev
    In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 25-95. 2014.
    Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain mean…Read more
  •  76
    The Inflationary and Deflationary Trends in the Global Economy, or ‘the Japanese Disease’ is Spreading.
    with Andrey Korotayev
    Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (2): 152-173. 2014.
    The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among nu-merous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euro, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the infla-tion in the Western c…Read more
  •  122
    Globalization And The Shifting Of Global Economic-Political Balance
    with Andrey Korotayev
    In Endre Kiss & Arisztotelész Kiadó (eds.), The Dialectics of Modernity - Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization, Publisherhouse Arostotelész. pp. 184-207. 2014.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, …Read more
  •  1
    Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization
    with Andrey Korotayev
    In Endre Kiss & Arisztotelész Kiadó (eds.), The Dialectics of Modernity - Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization., Publisherhouse Arostotelész. pp. 119-140. 2014.
    This article studies the issue of the democratization of countries within the globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to the democracy as a result of revolutions of the similar large-scale events for those countries that are unprepared for this
  • Globalistics and Globalization Studies (edited book)
    with Ilya V. Ilyin and Andrey V. Korotayev
    Uchitel Publishing House. 2014.
  •  139
    The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
  •  65
    Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends.
    with Alexander V. Markov and Andrey V. Korotayev
    In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 9-48. 2014.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. …Read more
  •  68
    The present Yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. Already ancient historians (see, e.g., the second Chapter of Book VI of Polybius' Histories) described rather well the cyclical component of historical dynamics, whereas new interesting analyses of such dynamics also appeared in the Medieval and Early Modern periods (see, e.g., Ibn Khaldūn 1958 [1377], or Machiavelli 1996 [1531] 1). This is not surprising as the cyclical dynamics was dominant in the agrarian s…Read more
  •  839
    History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles
    with Andrey V. Korotayev
    "Uchitel" Publishing House. 2014.
    The present yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. It is devoted to cyclical and trend dynamics in society and nature; special attention is paid to economic and demographic aspects, in particular to the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps' dynamics. An increasingly important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly devel…Read more
  •  173
    Origins of Globalization in the Framework of the Afroeurasian World-System History
    with Andrey V. Korotayev
    Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (1): 32-64. 2014.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-s…Read more
  •  45
    The Star-Galaxy Era of Big History in the Light of Universal Evolutionary Principles
    In Leonid Grinin, David Baker & Esther Quaedackers (eds.), Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 163-187. 2014.
    Big History provides a unique opportunity to consider the development of the Universe as a single process. Within Big History studies one can distinguish some common evolutionary laws and principles. However, it is very important to recognize that there are many more such integrating principles, laws, mechanisms and patterns of evolution at all its levels than it is usually supposed. In the meantime, we can find the common traits in development, functioning, and interaction of apparently rather …Read more
  •  92
    Introduction. Big History's Big Potential
    with David Baker, Esther Quaedackers, and Andrey V. Korotayev
    In Leonid Grinin, David Baker, Esther Quaedackers & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 7-18. 2014.
    Big History has been developing very fast indeed. We are currently observing a ‘Cambrian explosion’ in terms of its popularity and diffusion. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries, including China, Korea, the Netherlands, the USA, India, Russia, Japan, Australia, Great Britain, Germany, and many more. The International Big History Association (IBHA) is gaining momentum in its projects and membership. Conferences are beginning to be held regular…Read more
  •  1281
    Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field
    with David Baker, Esther Quaedackers, and Andrey V. Korotayev
    "Uchitel" Publishing House. 2014.
    According to the working definition of the International Big History Association, ‘Big History seeks to understand the integrated history of the Cosmos, Earth, Life and Humanity, using the best available empirical evidence and scholarly methods’. In recent years Big History has been developing very fast indeed. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries. Hundreds of researchers are involved in studying and teaching Big History. The unique approach o…Read more
  •  42
    Beyond Global Studies. The Introductory Lecture to Big History Course
    In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 321-328. 2014.
    Global studies can be made not only with respect to the humans who inhabit the Earth, they can well be done with respect to biological and abiotic systems of our planet. Such an approach opens wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to form a global view of various processes. However, we can also ask ourselves whether the limits of our studies can be moved further. Would not it be useful for the students to understand the evolution of our planet within the context of the ev…Read more
  •  45
    The Tiger and the Dragon
    In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 184-208. 2014.
    In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious population ageing. But economic and political scenarios …Read more
  •  75
    Kondratieff Waves in the Global Studies Perspective.
    with Andrey Korotayev
    In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 65-98. 2014.
    The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term worldsystem dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers a historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the …Read more
  • Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Big History & Global History (edited book)
    with Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey V. Korotayev
    Uchitel Publishing House. 2015.
  • Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots (edited book)
    with Andrey Korotayev
    Uchitel Publishing House. 2015.
  • History & Mathematics: Political Demography and Global Ageing (edited book)
    with Jack A. Goldstone and Andrey V. Korotayev
    Uchitel Publishing House. 2015.
  • Эволюция. Мегаистория и глобальная эволюция (edited book)
    with Andrey Korotayev
    Uchitel Publishing House. 2015.