•  1284
    Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field
    with David Baker, Esther Quaedackers, and Andrey V. Korotayev
    "Uchitel" Publishing House. 2014.
    According to the working definition of the International Big History Association, ‘Big History seeks to understand the integrated history of the Cosmos, Earth, Life and Humanity, using the best available empirical evidence and scholarly methods’. In recent years Big History has been developing very fast indeed. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries. Hundreds of researchers are involved in studying and teaching Big History. The unique approach o…Read more
  •  1284
    Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Global Transformations and Global Future.
    with Ilya Illin, Andrey Korotayev, and Peter Herrmann
    Uchitel Publishing House. 2016.
    The present volume is the fifth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global Transformations and Global Future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. And our future can all means be global. However, is this statement justified? Indeed, in recent years, many have begun to claim that globalization has stalled, that we are rather dealing with the process of anti-globalizatio…Read more
  •  1223
    Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery (edited book)
    with Arno Tausch and Andrey Korotayev
    Springer International Publishing Switzerland. 2016.
    This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive name…Read more
  •  839
    History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles
    with Andrey V. Korotayev
    "Uchitel" Publishing House. 2014.
    The present yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. It is devoted to cyclical and trend dynamics in society and nature; special attention is paid to economic and demographic aspects, in particular to the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps' dynamics. An increasingly important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly devel…Read more
  •  648
    The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems.
    with Anton Grinin
    "Uchitel" Publishing House. 2016.
    The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century. What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroug…Read more
  •  611
    Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing
    with Anton Grinin and Andrey Korotayev
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change 115 52-68. 2017.
    In the present article we analyze the relationships between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and offer forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave. We use for our analysis the basic ideas of long cycles' theory and related theories (theories of the leading sector, technological styles etc.) as well as the ideas of our own theory of production principles and production revolutions. The latest of production revolution is the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our p…Read more
  •  495
    Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions
    with Andrey Korotayev
    Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2): 166-183. 2010.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there b…Read more
  •  430
    В последние два-три года среди многочислен- ных проблем в отношении европейской и американской экономики все чаще стала упоминаться опасность дефляции. При этом в каче- стве примера рассматривается японская экономика, которая уже два десятилетия страдает от дефляции, несмотря на огромные раз- меры финансовых вливаний и усилия правительства разогнать ин- фляцию. В западных экономиках инфляция также низкая, времена- ми нулевая, переходящая в дефляцию. В целом есть основания счи- тать, что страны Е…Read more
  •  392
    The Tiger and the Dragon. Development Models and Perspectives of India and China.
    Journal of Globalization Studies 4 (1): 5-31. 2013.
    In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious ageing population problems. But economic and political …Read more
  •  378
    World order transformation and sociopolitical destabilization
    with Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Issaev, Alisa Shishkina, Evgeny Ivanov, and Kira Meshcherina
    Basic Research Program: Working Papers. 2017.
    The present working paper analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal contradictions of the current unipo…Read more
  •  341
    Will the Explosive Growth of China Continue?
    with Sergey Tsirel and Andrey Korotayev
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change 95 394-308. 2015.
    The role of China in the world economy is constantly growing. In particular we observe that it plays more and more important role in the support of theworld economic growth (as well as high prices of certain very important commodities). In the meantime the perspectives of the Chinese economy (as well as possible fates of the Chinese society) remain unclear, whereas respective forecasts look rather contradictory. That is why the search for new aspects and modes of analysis of possible development…Read more
  •  339
    Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles
    with Andrey Korotayev
    In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 25-95. 2014.
    Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain mean…Read more
  •  301
    The Pathways of Politogenesis and Models of the Early State Formation
    Social Evolution and History 8 (1): 92-132. 2009.
    This article considers concrete manifestations of the politogenesis multilinearity and the variation of its forms; it analyzes the main causes that determined the politogenetic pathway of a given society. The respective factors include the polity's size, its ecological and social environment. The politogenesis should be never reduced to the only one evolutionary pathway leading to the statehood. The early state formation was only one of many versions of development of complex late archaic soci…Read more
  •  275
    The Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process
    with Anton Grinin
    Social Evolution and History 14 (1): 125-184. 2015.
    The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and predict the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies, robotics, ICT and other technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution…Read more
  •  261
    Cosmic Evolution and Universal Evolutionary Principles
    In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots, Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 20-45. 2015.
    The present article attempts at combining Big History potential with the potential of Evolutionary Studies in order to achieve the following goals: 1) to apply the historical narrative principle to the description of the star-galaxy era of the cosmic phase of Big History; 2) to analyze both the cosmic history and similarities and differences between evolutionary laws, principles, and mechanisms at various levels and phases of Big History. As far as I know, nobody has approached this task in a sy…Read more
  •  245
    Globalization and the World System Evolution
    with Andrey Korotayev
    Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11): 30-68. 2013.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effective-ness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-syst…Read more
  •  241
    Economic Development, Sociopolitical Destabilization and Inequality
    with Andrey Korotayev, Kira Meshcherina, Stanislav Bilyuga, and Alisa Shishkina
    Russian Sociological Review 16 (3): 9-35. 2017.
    In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlation between per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detected for low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequality associated with the economic and technological development in these countries. The empirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify certain limits for such an explanation. Our tests rev…Read more
  •  231
    Контуры нового мирового порядка
    Философия И Общество 3 (4): 7-33. 2015.
    Мировой порядок как система определенных идей и правил, господ-ствующих в международной политике, стал формироваться в Европе начиная с XVI в., окончательно утвердившись в XIX столетии. Однако этот порядок держится обычно в пределах трех-четырех десятилетий, а затем под влиянием изменившихся обстоятельств и нового баланса сил меняется. В настоящее время мы как раз переживаем период смены ми-рового порядка и начала формирования новой его системы. В статье анализируется начало ослабления мирового …Read more
  •  231
    On Similarities between Biological and Social Evolutionary Mechanisms: Mathematical Modeling
    Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 4 185-228. 2013.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. …Read more
  •  208
    Global Technological Perspectives in the Light of Cybernetic Revolution and Theory of Long Cycles
    with Anton Grinin
    Journal of Globalization Studies 6 (2): 119-142. 2015.
    In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call the phase of self-regu…Read more
  •  202
    The MANBRIC-technologies in the forthcoming technological revolution.
    with Anton Grinin and Andrey Korotayev
    Industry 4.0 - Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New Digital Landscape: What is Coming on Along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution 243-261. 2017.
    In this chapter, we analyze the relationship between Kondratieff waves and major technological revolutions on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, and offer some forecasts about the features of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave/the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We show that the technological breakthrough of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave may be interpreted as both the Fourth Industrial Revolution and as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution. We assume that the…Read more
  •  200
    State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization
    Social Evolution and History 12 (2): 35-76. 2013.
    This article starts with a brief analysis of the causes of state collapse as states undergo the process of political evolution. Next, I describe and analyze the mechanisms of social-political crises arising in the process of modernization. Such crises are a consequence of the inability of many traditional institutions and ideologies to keep up with changes in technology, communication, system of education, medical sphere, and with the demographic change. This analysis suggests that an accelerat…Read more
  •  190
    Революционные события 1917–1920 гг. в России не только потрясли мир в момент их совершения, но и существенно, даже круто изменили его, причем это влияние в течение десятилетий возрастало. Социали-стическая революция в России вызвала мощный резонанс в мире, стала новым направлением развития. Речь идет не только о силе примера, о повторении события в других обществах. Ее воздействие и шире, и глубже. Она существенно изменила систему мирового порядка в ХХ в. В статье рассмотрен аспект данного влиян…Read more
  •  188
    The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabilisation in the process of political transformation are among the most important issues of social development; the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of a respective socio-political system. This article studies the issue of democratisation. It highlights the high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy for countries unprepared for it—democracy resulting from revolutions or simila…Read more
  •  185
    Возникший глубокий кризис украинской государственности и идущая там, по сути, гражданская война вынуждают обратиться к причинам постоянных неудач формирования украинского государства. Многие на первый взгляд труднообъяснимые и откро-венно негативные особенности внешней и внутренней политики современной Украины в значительной степени связаны с геополитическими и историческими особенностями формирования государства, менталитета и традициями социально-политической психологии. Очевидно также, что …Read more
  •  183
    Macroevolution of Technology
    with Anton Grinin
    Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11): 143-178. 2013.
    What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one. The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new…Read more
  •  183
    Процесс старения населения захватил не только развитые страны, но и многие развивающиеся, превратившись в глобальный. Представляется, что он будет одним из самых важных процессов в ближайшие десятилетия, определяющим облик общества буду-щего и направление развития технологий. В статье дается анализ некоторых параметров процесса старения населения, показыва-ются его важные следствия для общества и мира в целом. На ос-новании этого анализа делается вывод о том, что грядущий тех-нологический перево…Read more
  •  176
    Global History and Future World Order
    with Ilya Il'in and Alexey Andreev
    Globalistics and Globalization Studies 93-110. 2016.
    The present article analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal the contradictions of the current unipola…Read more
  •  175
    Origins of Globalization in the Framework of the Afroeurasian World-System History
    with Andrey V. Korotayev
    Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (1): 32-64. 2014.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-s…Read more
  •  152
    Проблема социально-политического кризиса на Украине комплексная. Для анализа современного кризиса необходимо использовать различные методы и теории. В настоящей статье для определения исторических и геоисторических причин современного кризиса активно использованы ис-торико-генетический и историко-сравнительный методы. Многие на первый взгляд труднообъяснимые и откровенно негативные особенности внешней и внутренней политики современной Украины в значительной степени связаны с геополитическими и и…Read more