•  1
    The Confirmation of Common Component Causes
    PSA Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988 (1): 2-9. 1988.
    There is an interesting problem concerning component causes posed by Cartwright (1983) in her book How the Laws of Physics Lie, which is easily explained in terms of a simple example. Consider a cup sitting on the table. Why doesn’t it move? The explanation given by Newtonian mechanics is that the cup is experiencing two forces-the downward force of gravity and the upward ‘elastic’ force of the table-and these two forces exactly cancel to produce a zero resultant force. This zero resultant force…Read more
  •  2
    Unification and Scientific Realism Revisited
    PSA Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1986 (1): 394-405. 1986.
    Section 2 will begin by formulating Reichenbach’s principle of common cause in a more general way than is usual but in a way that makes the idea behind it a lot clearer. The way that Salmon has pushed the principle into the services of scientific realism will be explained in terms of an example, van Fraassen objects, Salmon modifies his stand and van Fraassen rejoins - all in section 2. (See van Fraassen 1980, chapter 2).In this episode I think van Fraassen right in claiming - against Salmon tha…Read more
  •  22
    How the Laws of Physics Lie
    Philosophy of Science 52 (3): 478-480. 1985.
  •  547
    Traditional analyses of the curve fitting problem maintain that the data do not indicate what form the fitted curve should take. Rather, this issue is said to be settled by prior probabilities, by simplicity, or by a background theory. In this paper, we describe a result due to Akaike [1973], which shows how the data can underwrite an inference concerning the curve's form based on an estimate of how predictively accurate it will be. We argue that this approach throws light on the theoretical vir…Read more
  •  236
    The Emergence of the Macroworld: A Study of Intertheory Relations in Classical and Quantum Mechanics
    with Alexey Kryukov
    Philosophy of Science 70 (5): 1039-1051. 2003.
    Classical mechanics is empirically successful because the probabilistic mean values of quantum mechanical observables follow the classical equations of motion to a good approximation (Messiah 1970, 215). We examine this claim for the one-dimensional motion of a particle in a box, and extend the idea by deriving a special case of the ideal gas law in terms of the mean value of a generalized force used to define "pressure." The examples illustrate the importance of probabilistic averaging as a met…Read more
  •  68
    Model selection in science: The problem of language variance
    British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 50 (1): 83-102. 1999.
    Recent solutions to the curve-fitting problem, described in Forster and Sober ([1995]), trade off the simplicity and fit of hypotheses by defining simplicity as the paucity of adjustable parameters. Scott De Vito ([1997]) charges that these solutions are 'conventional' because he thinks that the number of adjustable parameters may change when the hypotheses are described differently. This he believes is exactly what is illustrated in Goodman's new riddle of induction, otherwise known as the grue…Read more
  •  80
    The Frugal Inference of Causal Relations
    with Garvesh Raskutti, Reuben Stern, and Naftali Weinberger
    British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 69 (3): 821-848. 2018.
    Recent approaches to causal modelling rely upon the causal Markov condition, which specifies which probability distributions are compatible with a directed acyclic graph. Further principles are required in order to choose among the large number of DAGs compatible with a given probability distribution. Here we present a principle that we call frugality. This principle tells one to choose the DAG with the fewest causal arrows. We argue that frugality has several desirable properties compared to th…Read more
  •  91
    Bayes and Bust: Simplicity as a Problem for a Probabilist’s Approach to Confirmation (review)
    British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 46 (3): 399-424. 1995.
    The central problem with Bayesian philosophy of science is that it cannot take account of the relevance of simplicity and unification to confirmation, induction, and scientific inference. The standard Bayesian folklore about factoring simplicity into the priors, and convergence theorems as a way of grounding their objectivity are some of the myths that Earman's book does not address adequately. 1Review of John Earman: Bayes or Bust?, Cambridge, MA. MIT Press, 1992, £33.75cloth.
  •  11
    Scientific Evidence
    In Steven French & Juha Saatsi (eds.), Continuum Companion to the Philosophy of Science, Continuum. pp. 179. 2011.
  •  27
    Type 1: This process occurs for half of the population. For this segment of the population, there is 10% chance of developing the disease. There is a test for the disease such that 90% of the people who have the disease in this case will test positive (event E), while the false positive rate is 10%, which means that there is a 10% chance of testing positive for the disease when they do not have the disease.
  •  51
    This chapter examines four solutions to the problem of many models, and finds some fault or limitation with all of them except the last. The first is the naïve empiricist view that best model is the one that best fits the data. The second is based on Popper’s falsificationism. The third approach is to compare models on the basis of some kind of trade off between fit and simplicity. The fourth is the most powerful: Cross validation testing.
  •  61
    Unification, explanation, and the composition of causes in Newtonian mechanics
    Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 19 (1): 55-101. 1988.
    William Whewell’s philosophy of scientific discovery is applied to the problem of understanding the nature of unification and explanation by the composition of causes in Newtonian mechanics. The essay attempts to demonstrate: the sense in which ”approximate’ laws successfully refer to real physical systems rather than to idealizations of them; why good theoretical constructs are not badly underdetermined by observation; and why, in particular, Newtonian forces are not conventional and how empiri…Read more
  •  45
    Kenneth Wilson won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1982 for applying renormalization group, which he learnt from quantum field theory (QFT), to problems in statistical physics—the induced magnetization of materials (ferromagnetism) and the evaporation and condensation of fluids (phase transitions). See Wilson (1983). The renormalization group got its name from its early applications in QFT. There, it appeared to be a rather ad hoc method of subtracting away unwanted infinities. The further allegat…Read more
  •  10
    Ellery Eells, 1953-2006
    Proceedings and Addresses of the American Philosophical Association 80 (2). 2006.
  •  62
    Deductive logic is about the validity of arguments. An argument is valid when its conclusion follows deductively from its premises. Here’s an example: If Alice is guilty then Bob is guilty, and Alice is guilty. Therefore, Bob is guilty. The validity of the argument has nothing to do with what the argument is about. It has nothing to do with the meaning, or content, of the argument beyond the meaning of logical phrases such as if…then. Thus, any argument of the following form (called modus ponens…Read more
  •  24
    Wayne Myrvold (2003) has captured an important feature of unified theories, and he has done so in Bayesian terms. What is not clear is whether the virtue of such unification is most clearly understood in terms of Bayesian confirmation. I argue that the virtue of such unification is better understood in terms of other truth-related virtues such as predictive accuracy.
  •  70
    What is induction? John Stuart Mill (1874, p. 208) defined induction as the operation of discovering and proving general propositions. William Whewell (in Butts, 1989, p. 266) agrees with Mill’s definition as far as it goes. Is Whewell therefore assenting to the standard concept of induction, which talks of inferring a generalization of the form “All As are Bs” from the premise that “All observed As are Bs”? Does Whewell agree, to use Mill’s example, that inferring “All humans are mortal” from t…Read more
  •  42
    Sober (1984) has considered the problem of determining the evidential support, in terms of likelihood, for a hypothesis that is incomplete in the sense of not providing a unique probability function over the event space in its domain. Causal hypotheses are typically like this because they do not specify the probability of their initial conditions. Sober's (1984) solution to this problem does not work, as will be shown by examining his own biological examples of common cause explanation. The prop…Read more
  •  55
    The paper provides a formal proof that efficient estimates of parameters, which vary as as little as possible when measurements are repeated, may be expected to provide more accurate predictions. The definition of predictive accuracy is motivated by the work of Akaike (1973). Surprisingly, the same explanation provides a novel solution for a well known problem for standard theories of scientific confirmation — the Ravens Paradox. This is significant in light of the fact that standard Bayesian an…Read more
  •  22
    The distinction itself is best explained as follows. At the empirical level (at the bottom), there are curves, or functions, or laws, such as PV = constant the Boyle’s example, or a = M/r 2 in Newton’s example. The first point is that such formulae are actually ambiguous as to the hypotheses they represent. They can be understood in two ways. In order to make this point clear, let me first introduce a terminological distinction between variables and parameters. Acceleration and distance (a and r…Read more
  •  21
    Whewell, William (b Lancaster, England, 24 May 1794; d Cambridge, England, 6 March 1866) Born the eldest son of a carpenter, William Whewell rose to become Master of Trinity College, Cambridge and a central figure in Victorian science. After attending the grammar school at Heversham in Westmorland, Whewell entered Trinity College, Cambridge and graduated Second Wrangler. He became a Fellow of the College in 1817, took his M.A. degree in 1819, and his D.D. degree in 1844.
  •  27
    A and B in signaling games (Lewis 1969). Members of the population, such as our prehistoric pair, are occasionally faced with the following ‘game’. Let one of the players be the receiver and the other the sender. The receiver needs to know whether B is true or not, but only possesses information about whether A is true or not. In some environmental contexts, A is sufficient for B, in others it is not. The sender knows nothing about A or B, but does know that A is sufficient for B in some environ…Read more
  •  158
    Although in every inductive inference, an act of invention is requisite, the act soon slips out of notice. Although we bind together facts by superinducing upon them a new Conception, this Conception, once introduced and applied, is looked upon as inseparably connected with the facts, and necessarily implied in them. Having once had the phenomena bound together in their minds in virtue of the Conception men can no longer easily restore them back to the detached and incoherent condition in which …Read more
  •  94
    How do simple rules `fit to reality' in a complex world?
    Minds and Machines 9 (4): 543-564. 1999.
    The theory of fast and frugal heuristics, developed in a new book called Simple Heuristics that make Us Smart (Gigerenzer, Todd, and the ABC Research Group, in press), includes two requirements for rational decision making. One is that decision rules are bounded in their rationality –- that rules are frugal in what they take into account, and therefore fast in their operation. The second is that the rules are ecologically adapted to the environment, which means that they `fit to reality.' The ma…Read more
  •  134
    Ramsey, Stick and Garon (1991) argue that if the correct theory of mind is some parallel distributed processing theory, then folk psychology must be false. Their idea is that if the nodes and connections that encode one representation are causally active then all representations encoded by the same set of nodes and connections are also causally active. We present a clear, and concrete, counterexample to RSG's argument. In conclusion, we suggest that folk psychology and connectionism are best und…Read more