• Counterfactual Probability
    Journal of Philosophy. forthcoming.
    Stalnaker's Thesis about indicative conditionals is, roughly, that the probability one ought to assign to an indicative conditional equals the probability that one ought to assign to its consequent conditional on its antecedent. The thesis seems right. If you draw a card from a standard 52-card deck, how confident are you that the card is a diamond if it's a red card? To answer this, you calculate the proportion of red cards that are diamonds -- that is, you calculate the probability of drawing…Read more
  • The Qualitative Thesis
    Journal of Philosophy. forthcoming.
    The Qualitative Thesis says that if you are not sure that ¬φ, then you are sure of the indicative conditional φ > ψ just in case you are sure of the material conditional φ ⊃ ψ. We argue that The Qualitative Thesis provides compelling reasons to accept a thesis that we call Conditional Locality, which says, roughly, that the interpretation of an indicative conditional depends, in part, on the conditional’s local embedding environment. In the first part of the paper, we present an argument—due to …Read more