•  10
    Evaluating conditional arguments with uncertain premises
    with Raymond S. Nickerson and Daniel H. Barch
    Thinking and Reasoning 25 (1): 48-71. 2018.
    ABSTRACTTreating conditionals as probabilistic statements has been referred to as a defining feature of the “new paradigm” in cognitive psychology. Doing so is attractive for several reasons, but it complicates the problem of assessing the merits of conditional arguments. We consider several variables that relate to judging the persuasiveness of conditional arguments with uncertain premises. We also explore ways of judging the consistency of people's beliefs as represented by components of condi…Read more
  •  35
    Keep or trade? Effects of pay-off range on decisions with the two-envelopes problem
    with Raymond S. Nickerson, Nathaniel Delaney-Busch, and Michael Carlin
    Thinking and Reasoning 20 (4): 472-499. 2014.
    The "two-envelopes" problem has stimulated much discussion on probabilistic reasoning, but relatively little experimentation. The problem specifies two identical envelopes, one of which contains twice as much money as the other. You are given one of the envelopes and the option of keeping it or trading for the other envelope. Variables of interest include the possible amounts of money involved, what is known about the process by which the amounts of money were assigned to the envelopes, and whet…Read more
  •  63
    Keep or trade? An experimental study of the exchange paradox
    with Raymond S. Nickerson
    Thinking and Reasoning 14 (4): 365-394. 2008.
    The “exchange paradox”—also referred to in the literature by a variety of other names, notably the “two-envelopes problem”—is notoriously difficult, and experts are not all agreed as to its resolution. Some of the various expressions of the problem are open to more than one interpretation; some are stated in such a way that assumptions are required in order to fill in missing information that is essential to any resolution. In three experiments several versions of the problem were used, in each …Read more
  •  42
    Efficiency in data gathering: Set size effects in the selection task
    with Raymond S. Nickerson
    Thinking and Reasoning 14 (1). 2008.
    Two experiments were conducted with variants of Wason's (1966) selection task. The common focus was the effect of differences in the sizes of the sets represented by P and not-Q in assertions of the form _If P then Q_ (conditional) or _All P are Q_ (categorical). Results support the conclusion that such set size differences affect the strategies people adopt when asked to determine, efficiently, the truth or falsity of such assertions, but they do not entirely negate the tendency to select the t…Read more
  •  7
    Knowledge assessment: Squeezing information from multiple-choice testing
    with Raymond S. Nickerson and Michael T. Carlin
    Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 21 (2): 167-177. 2015.
  •  10
    Set size, assertion form, thematic content and sampling in the selection task
    with Raymond S. Nickerson and Daniel H. Barch
    Thinking and Reasoning 23 (2): 134-157. 2017.
    Participants attempted to solve a modified version of Wason's selection task. Variables were: sizes of the sets referenced by a specified assertion, form of the assertion, thematic content of the assertion, and the need for sampling or not. In Experiment 1, participants were given enough information to determine the truth or falsity of the specified assertion with certainty; in Experiment 2, they had to rely on sampling and could not determine the assertion's truth or falsity with certainty. Per…Read more