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Jan Sprenger

University of Turin
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  •  190
    Probability, rational single-case decisions and the Monty Hall Problem
    Synthese 174 (3): 331-340. 2010.
    The application of probabilistic arguments to rational decisions in a single case is a contentious philosophical issue which arises in various contexts. Some authors (e.g. Horgan, Philos Pap 24:209–222, 1995; Levy, Synthese 158:139–151, 2007) affirm the normative force of probabilistic arguments in single cases while others (Baumann, Am Philos Q 42:71–79, 2005; Synthese 162:265–273, 2008) deny it. I demonstrate that both sides do not give convincing arguments for their case and propose a new acc…Read more
    Bayesian Reasoning, MiscMonty Hall ProblemPropensities
  •  58
    A unifying framework of probabilistic reasoning: Rolf Haenni, Jan-Willem Romeijn, Gregory Wheeler and Jon Williamson: Probabilistic logic and probabilistic networks. Dordrecht: Springer, 2011, xiii+155pp, €59.95 HB (review)
    Metascience 21 (2): 459-462. 2011.
    A unifying framework of probabilistic reasoning Content Type Journal Article Category Book Review Pages 1-4 DOI 10.1007/s11016-011-9573-x Authors Jan Sprenger, Tilburg Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science, Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands Journal Metascience Online ISSN 1467-9981 Print ISSN 0815-0796
  •  124
    The Weight of Competence under a Realistic Loss Function
    with Stephan Hartmann
    Logic Journal of the IGPL 18 (2): 346-352. 2010.
    In many scientific, economic and policy-related problems, pieces of information from different sources have to be aggregated. Typically, the sources are not equally competent. This raises the question of how the relative weights and competences should be related to arrive at an optimal final verdict. Our paper addresses this question under a more realistic perspective of measuring the practical loss implied by an inaccurate verdict.
    Topics in Decision Theory, Misc