-
1Computer Modeling in Climate Science: Experiment, Explanation, PluralismDissertation, University of Pittsburgh. 2003.Computer simulation modeling is an important part of contemporary scientific practice but has not yet received much attention from philosophers. The present project helps to fill this lacuna in the philosophical literature by addressing three questions that arise in the context of computer simulation of Earth's climate. Computer simulation experimentation commonly is viewed as a suspect methodology, in contrast to the trusted mainstay of material experimentation. Are the results of computer simu…Read more
-
101Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of ModelsPhilosophy of Science 77 (5): 985-997. 2010.Today’s most sophisticated simulation studies of future climate employ not just one climate model but a number of models. I explain why this “ensemble” approach has been adopted—namely, as a means of taking account of uncertainty—and why a comprehensive investigation of uncertainty remains elusive. I then defend a middle ground between two camps in an ongoing debate over the transformation of ensemble results into probabilistic predictions of climate change, highlighting requirements that I refe…Read more
-
68Introduction to Assessing climate models: knowledge, values and policyEuropean Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2): 141-148. 2015.
-
34False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty AssessmentPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 373 (2055): 20140453. 2015.An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent’s uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection …Read more
-
186Understanding pluralism in climate modelingFoundations of Science 11 (4): 349-368. 2006.To study Earth’s climate, scientists now use a variety of computer simulation models. These models disagree in some of their assumptions about the climate system, yet they are used together as complementary resources for investigating future climatic change. This paper examines and defends this use of incompatible models. I argue that climate model pluralism results both from uncertainty concerning how to best represent the climate system and from difficulties faced in evaluating the relative me…Read more
-
32Comparative Process Tracing and Climate Change FingerprintsPhilosophy of Science 77 (5): 1083-1095. 2010.Climate change fingerprint studies investigate the causes of recent climate change. I argue that these studies have much in common with Steel’s (2008) streamlined comparative process tracing, illustrating a mechanisms-based approach to extrapolation in which the mechanisms of interest are simulated rather than physically instantiated. I then explain why robustness and variety-of-evidence considerations turn out to be important for understanding the evidential value of climate change fingerprint …Read more
Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America
Areas of Specialization
1 more
Simulation in Science |
Climate Change |
Evidence and Knowledge |
Prediction in Science |
Measurement in Science |
Science and Values |