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1Computer Modeling in Climate Science: Experiment, Explanation, PluralismDissertation, University of Pittsburgh. 2003.Computer simulation modeling is an important part of contemporary scientific practice but has not yet received much attention from philosophers. The present project helps to fill this lacuna in the philosophical literature by addressing three questions that arise in the context of computer simulation of Earth's climate. Computer simulation experimentation commonly is viewed as a suspect methodology, in contrast to the trusted mainstay of material experimentation. Are the results of computer simu…Read more
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96Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of ModelsPhilosophy of Science 77 (5): 985-997. 2010.Today’s most sophisticated simulation studies of future climate employ not just one climate model but a number of models. I explain why this “ensemble” approach has been adopted—namely, as a means of taking account of uncertainty—and why a comprehensive investigation of uncertainty remains elusive. I then defend a middle ground between two camps in an ongoing debate over the transformation of ensemble results into probabilistic predictions of climate change, highlighting requirements that I refe…Read more
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65Introduction to Assessing climate models: knowledge, values and policyEuropean Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2): 141-148. 2015.
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33False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty AssessmentPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 373 (2055): 20140453. 2015.An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent’s uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection …Read more
Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America
Areas of Specialization
1 more
Simulation in Science |
Climate Change |
Evidence and Knowledge |
Prediction in Science |
Measurement in Science |
Science and Values |