Richard Swinburne

Four principles about Time have the consequence that God must be everlasting, and not timeless. These are 1) events occur over periods of time, never at instants, 2) Time has a metric if and only if there is a unified system of laws of nature, 3) The past is the realm of the causally unaffectible, the future of the causally affectible, 4) Some truths can only be known at certain periods. Yet God is not Time’s prisoner’, for the unwelcome features of Time--the increase of unaffectible events, the cosmic clock’ ticking away--only occur if God so chooses.

This is an introduction to a collected volume. It distinguishes between evidential, statistical, and physical probability, and between objective and subjective understandings of evidential probability, in the use of Bayes’s theorem. If Bayes’s theorem is to be used to assess an objective evidential probability, a priori criteria--mainly the criterion of simplicity--are required to determine prior probability. The five main contributors to the volume discuss the use of Bayes’s theorem to assess the evidential probability of scientific theories, statistical hypotheses, criminal guilt, and miracles; and also its value for assessing physical probability.

O artigo discute a forma de um argumento em favor da ressurreição de Jesus do modo como o Cristianismo acredita que esta ocorreu, o qual, se bem-sucedido, seria um forte indício histórico da existência de Deus. O artigo sustenta que Deus teve boas razões para se encarnar por certos propósitos e que, se assim ele o fez, ele viveria um certo tipo de vida como um ser humano, que seria culminada por um supermilagre como sua ressurreição. Se encontrarmos um e apenas um ser humano em toda a história sobre o qual haja uma quantidade modesta de indícios do tipo que se esperaria se ele viveu aquele tipo de vida e uma modesta quantidade de indícios do tipo a ser esperado se aquela vida fosse culminada por um supermilagre como a ressurreição, isso é um indício bem forte de que aquele ser humano era Deus encarnado. Assim, aqueles indícios aumentariam significativamente a probabilidade de que Deus existe.This article discusses the form of an argument for the Resurrection of Jesusas Christianity believes it occurred, which, if successful, would be strong historical evidence for the existence of God. The article argues that God had good reason to become incarnate for certain purposes, and that if he did he would live a certain kind of life as a human, which would be culminated by a super-miracle such as his resurrection. If we find one and only one human in all history about whom there is a modest amount of evidence of a kind to be expected if he lived that kind of life and a modest amount of evidence of a kind to be expected if that life was culminated by a super-miracle such as the resurrection, that is very strong evidence that that human was God incarnate. Hence that evidence would greatly increase the probability that there is a God.

Richard Swinburne presents a substantially rewritten and updated edition of his most celebrated book. No other work has made a more powerful case for the probability of the existence of God. Swinburne gives a rigorous and penetrating analysis of the most important arguments for theism: the cosmological argument; arguments from the existence of laws of nature and the 'fine-tuning' of the universe; from the occurrence of consciousness and moral awareness; and from miracles and religious experience. He claims that while none of these arguments are deductively valid, they do give inductive support to theism and that, even when the argument from evil is weighed against them, taken together they offer good grounds to support the probability that there is a God. The overall structure of the discussion and its conclusion have been retained for this new edition, but much has been changed in order to strengthen the argumentation and to take account of Swinburne's subsequent work on the nature of consciousness and the problem of evil, and of the latest philosophical and scientific writing, especially in respect of the laws of nature and the argument from fine-tuning. This is now the definitive version of a classic in the philosophy of religion.

I distinguish between the argument to the existence of God from the operation of laws of nature and the argument from the laws being of such a kind as (together with the boundary conditions of the universe) to lead to the evolution of humans. There could not be a ’scientific’ explanation of these data, but there could be a ’personal’ explanation that they were caused by a person in virtue of his powers and purposes. The simplest and so most probably true explanation is that they were brought about by God.

FAILURE TO OBSERVE OBLIGATIONS PRODUCES OBJECTIVE GUILT; FAILURE TO OBSERVE BELIEVED OBLIGATIONS PRODUCES SUBJECTIVE GUILT. A GUILTY PERSON MUST MAKE ATONEMENT. ATONEMENT CONSISTS OF REPENTANCE, APOLOGY, REPARATION AND PENANCE. THE PROCESS OF UNDOING THE WRONG IS COMPLETED WHEN THE WRONGED PERSON FORGIVES. NO ONE CAN MAKE THE GUILTY ONE’S REPENTANCE AND APOLOGY FOR HIM, BUT ANOTHER CAN PROVIDE THE MEANS OF REPARATION AND PENANCE. WHEN HUMANS SIN AGAINST GOD THEY NEED TO APOLOGISE WITH REPENTANCE, AND PLEAD THE ATONING SACRIFICE WHICH CHRIST HAS PROVIDED.

Theism is a far simpler hypothesis, and so a priori more probably true, than naturalism, understood as the hypothesis that the existence of this law-governeduniverse has no explanation. Theism postulates only one entity (God) with very simple properties, whereas naturalism has to postulate either innumerableentities all having the same properties, or one very complicated entity with the power to produce the former. If theism is true, it is moderately probable that God would create humanoid beings and so humanoid bodies; but laws of nature would have to have very special properties if they are to bring about the existencne of humaoid bodies. Given laws of the present form (quantum theory with the Pauli principle and the four forces), the constants of the laws and variables of the boundary conditions of the universe would need to be extremely fine-tuned; and no simpler set of laws would allow the existence of humanoid bodies at all. So the evidence of the existence of humanoid bodies adds further to the probability of theismas against naturalism.

A logically impossible sentence is one which entails a contradiction, a logically necessary sentence is one whose negation entails a contradiction, and a logically possible sentence is one which does not entail a contradiction. Metaphysically impossible, necessary and possible sentences are ones which become logically impossible, necessary, or possible by substituting what I call informative rigid designators for uninformative ones. It does seem very strongly that a negative existential sentence cannot entail a contradiction, and so ”there is a God’ cannot be a metaphysically necessary truth. If it were such a truth, innumerable other sentences which seem paradigm examples of logically possible sentences, such as ”no one knows everything’ would turn out to be logically impossible. The only way in which God could be a logically necessary being is if there were eternal necessary propositions independent of human language or God’s will, such that the proposition that there is no God would entail -- via propositions inaccessible to us -- a contradiction. But if there were such propositions, God would have less control over the universe than he would have otherwise.