Leon Horsten

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned probability zero (in other words: the probability functions are regular). We use a non-Archimedean field as the range of the probability function. As a result, the property of countable additivity in Kolmogorov’s axiomatization of probability is replaced by a different type of infinite additivity.

In this paper, a general perspective on criteria of identity of kinds of objects is developed. The question of the admissibility of impredicative or circular identity criteria is investigated in the light of the view that is articulated. It is argued that in and of itself impredicativity does not constitute sufficient grounds for rejecting a putative identity criterion. The view that is presented is applied to Davidson’s criterion of identity for events and to the structuralist criterion of identity of places in a structure.

In his Gibbs lecture, Gödel argued for the thesis that either the human mind is not a Turing machine, or there exist absolutely undecidable mathematical propositions. He believed that this disjunction can be deduced with mathematical certainty from certain results in mathematical logic. He thought that his disjunctive thesis is of great philosophical importance. First, Gödel's argument for his disjunctive thesis is discussed. It is argued that thisargument contains an ambiguity. But when it is made precise in a certain way, the argument is seen to be ultimately inescapable. Second, the disjuncts of the thesis are considered in their own right. It is argued that there are today no convincing arguments in favor of the first disjunct, nor are there at present convincing arguments against it. But there do exist today strong reasons to believe the second disjunct to be true, although these reasons do not establish the disjunct with anything like mathematical certainty