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577Causal Decision Theory, Context, and DeterminismPhilosophy and Phenomenological Research. forthcoming.The classic formulation of causal decision theory (CDT) appeals to counterfactuals. It says that you should aim to choose an option that would have a good outcome, were you to choose it. However, this version of CDT faces trouble if the laws of nature are deterministic. After all, the standard theory of counterfactuals says that, if the laws are deterministic, then if anything—including the choice you make—were different in the present, either the laws would be violated or the distant past would…Read more
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62The punctuated equilibrium of scientific change: a Bayesian network modelSynthese 200 (4): 1-25. 2022.Our scientific theories, like our cognitive structures in general, consist of propositions linked by evidential, explanatory, probabilistic, and logical connections. Those theoretical webs ‘impinge on the world at their edges,’ subject to a continuing barrage of incoming evidence. Our credences in the various elements of those structures change in response to that continuing barrage of evidence, as do the perceived connections between them. Here we model scientific theories as Bayesian nets, wit…Read more
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484Scientific Theories as Bayesian Nets: Structure and Evidence SensitivityPhilosophy of Science 89 (1): 42-69. 2022.We model scientific theories as Bayesian networks. Nodes carry credences and function as abstract representations of propositions within the structure. Directed links carry conditional probabilities and represent connections between those propositions. Updating is Bayesian across the network as a whole. The impact of evidence at one point within a scientific theory can have a very different impact on the network than does evidence of the same strength at a different point. A Bayesian model allow…Read more
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Areas of Specialization
Decision Theory |
Epistemology |
Philosophy of Language |
Metaphysics |