Emily Gray

Do government policies increase the likelihood that some citizens will become persistent criminals? Using criminological concepts such as the idea of a “criminal career” and sociological concepts such as the life course, this article assesses the outcome of macro-level economic policies on individuals’ engagement in crime. Few studies in political science, sociology, or criminology directly link macroeconomic policies to individual offending. Employing individual-level longitudinal data, this article tracks a sample of Britons born in 1970 from childhood to adulthood and examines their offending trajectories through the early 1980s to see the effects of economic policies on individuals’ repeated offending. A model is developed with data from the British 1970 Birth Cohort Study that incorporates individuals, families, and schools and takes account of national-level economic policies. Findings suggest that economic restructuring was a key causal factor in offending during the period. Criminologists are encouraged to draw on ideas from political science to help explain offending careers and show how political choices in the management of the economy encourage individual-level responses.

Bold approaches to data collection and large-scale quantitative advances have long been a preoccupation for social science researchers. In this commentary we further debate over the use of large-scale survey data and official statistics with ‘Big Data’ methodologists, and emphasise the ability of these resources to incorporate the essential social and cultural heredity that is intrinsic to the human sciences. In doing so, we introduce a series of new data-sets that integrate approximately 30 years of survey data on victimisation, fear of crime and disorder and social attitudes with indicators of socio-economic conditions and policy outcomes in Britain. The data-sets that we outline below do not conform to typical conceptions of ‘Big Data’. But, we would contend, they are ‘big’ in terms of the volume, variety and complexity of data which has been collated and ‘big’ also in that they allow us to explore key questions pertaining to how social and economic policy change at the national level alters the attitudes and experiences of citizens. Importantly, they are also ‘small’ in the sense that the task of rendering the data usable, linking it and decoding it, required both manual processing and tacit knowledge of the context of the data and intentions of its creators.