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5Symmetry Arguments in ProbabilityIn Alan Hájek & Christopher Hitchcock (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, Oxford University Press. 2016.
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8Buffon, Price, and Laplace: Scientific attribution in the 18th centuryArchive for History of Exact Sciences 39 (2): 173-181. 1988.
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11It All Adds Up: The Dynamic Coherence of Radical Probabilism It All Adds Up: The Dynamic Coherence of Radical Probabilism (pp. S98-S103) (review)Philosophy of Science 69 (S3). 2002.Brian Skyrms (1987, 1990, 1993, 1997) has discussed the role of dynamic coherence arguments in the theory of personal or subjective probability. In particular, Skryms (1997) both reviews and discusses the utility of martingale arguments in establishing the convergence of beliefs within the context of radical probabilism. The classical martingale converence theorem, however, assumes the countable additivity of the underlying probability measure; an assumption rejected by some subjectivists such a…Read more
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33Inventing new signalsDynamic Games and Applications 2 (1): 129-145. 2012.Amodel for inventing newsignals is introduced in the context of sender–receiver games with reinforcement learning. If the invention parameter is set to zero, it reduces to basic Roth–Erev learning applied to acts rather than strategies, as in Argiento et al. (Stoch. Process. Appl. 119:373–390, 2009). If every act is uniformly reinforced in every state it reduces to the Chinese Restaurant Process—also known as the Hoppe–Pólya urn—applied to each act. The dynamics can move players from one signali…Read more
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Cryptology, Mathematics, and TechnologyIn Sven Ove Hansson (ed.), Technology and Mathematics: Philosophical and Historical Investigations, Springer Verlag. 2018.
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Symmetry and its Discontents: Essays on the History of Inductive ProbabilityCambridge University Press. 2005.This volume brings together a collection of essays on the history and philosophy of probability and statistics by one of the eminent scholars in these subjects. Written over the last fifteen years, they fall into three broad categories. The first deals with the use of symmetry arguments in inductive probability, in particular, their use in deriving rules of succession. The second group deals with four outstanding individuals who made lasting contributions to probability and statistics in very di…Read more
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24The Rise of Modern Probability TheoryStudies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 31 (1): 109-116. 2000.
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46It All Adds Up: The Dynamic Coherence of Radical ProbabilismPhilosophy of Science 69 (S3). 2002.
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74Carnap and the logic of inductive inferenceIn Dov M. Gabbay, John Woods & Akihiro Kanamori (eds.), Handbook of the History of Logic, Elsevier. pp. 10--265. 2004.
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2Updating Subjective ProbabilityJournal of the American Statistical Association 77 (380): 822-830. 1982.
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28The Rise of Modern Probability TheoryStudies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 31 (1): 109-116. 2000.
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66It all adds up: The dynamic coherence of radical probabilismProceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3). 2002.
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171Predicting the unpredictableSynthese 90 (2): 205-232. 1992.A major difficulty for currently existing theories of inductive inference involves the question of what to do when novel, unknown, or previously unsuspected phenomena occur. In this paper one particular instance of this difficulty is considered, the so-called sampling of species problem.The classical probabilistic theories of inductive inference due to Laplace, Johnson, de Finetti, and Carnap adopt a model of simple enumerative induction in which there are a prespecified number of types or speci…Read more
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56Confirming universal generalizationsErkenntnis 45 (2-3): 267-283. 1996.The purpose of this paper is to make a simple observation regarding the Johnson -Carnap continuum of inductive methods. From the outset, a common criticism of this continuum was its failure to permit the confirmation of universal generalizations: that is, if an event has unfailingly occurred in the past, the failure of the continuum to give some weight to the possibility that the event will continue to occur without fail in the future. The Johnson -Carnap continuum is the mathematical consequenc…Read more
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113Why Gibbs Phase Averages Work—The Role of Ergodic TheoryPhilosophy of Science 47 (3): 339-349. 1980.We propose an "explanation scheme" for why the Gibbs phase average technique in classical equilibrium statistical mechanics works. Our account emphasizes the importance of the Khinchin-Lanford dispersion theorems. We suggest that ergodicity does play a role, but not the one usually assigned to it
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71Johannes von Kries’s Principien: A Brief Guide for the PerplexedJournal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 47 (1): 131-150. 2016.This paper has the aim of making Johannes von Kries’s masterpiece, Die Principien der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung of 1886, a little more accessible to the modern reader in three modest ways: first, it discusses the historical background to the book ; next, it summarizes the basic elements of von Kries’s approach ; and finally, it examines the so-called “principle of cogent reason” with which von Kries’s name is often identified in the English literature
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43Philosophy of inductive logic : the Bayesian perspectiveIn Leila Haaparanta (ed.), The development of modern logic, Oxford University Press. 2011.This chapter describes the logic of inductive inference as seen through the eyes of the modern theory of personal probability, including a number of its recent refinements and extensions. The structure of the chapter is as follows. After a brief discussion of mathematical probability, to establish notation and terminology, it recounts the gradual evolution of the probabilistic explication of induction from Bayes to the present. The focus is not in this history per se, but in its use to highlight…Read more
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Philosophy of inductive logicIn Leila Haaparanta (ed.), The development of modern logic, Oxford University Press. 2011.
Sandy Zabell
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