-
534Consilience and Natural Kind Reasoning (in Newton's Argument for Universal Gravitation) in An Intimate Relation. Studies in the History and Philosophy of ScienceBoston Studies in the Philosophy of Science 116 115-152. 1989.
-
299Inferences from phenomena in gravitational physicsPhilosophy of Science 63 (3): 54. 1996.Newton's methodology emphasized propositions "inferred from phenomena." These rest on systematic dependencies that make phenomena measure theoretical parameters. We consider the inferences supporting Newton's inductive argument that gravitation is proportional to inertial mass. We argue that the support provided by these systematic dependencies is much stronger than that provided by bootstrap confirmation; this kind of support thus avoids some of the major objections against bootstrapping. Final…Read more
-
185Model selection, simplicity, and scientific inferenceProceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3). 2002.The Akaike Information Criterion can be a valuable tool of scientific inference. This statistic, or any other statistical method for that matter, cannot, however, be the whole of scientific methodology. In this paper some of the limitations of Akaikean statistical methods are discussed. It is argued that the full import of empirical evidence is realized only by adopting a richer ideal of empirical success than predictive accuracy, and that the ability of a theory to turn phenomena into accurate,…Read more
-
144Rational belief change, Popper functions and counterfactualsSynthese 30 (1-2). 1975.This paper uses Popper's treatment of probability and an epistemic constraint on probability assignments to conditionals to extend the Bayesian representation of rational belief so that revision of previously accepted evidence is allowed for. Results of this extension include an epistemic semantics for Lewis' theory of counterfactual conditionals and a representation for one kind of conceptual change.
-
111Papier mâché problems in epistemology: A defense of strong internalismSynthese 116 (1): 27-49. 1998.I attempt to persuade the reader that externalism admits of no plausible interpretation. I argue that reliability is a concept with very different contours from epistemic justification, and that attempts to explicate justification in terms of reliability must fail. I address several other forms of externalism, and also mixed forms of justification. I then argue that externalist theories of justification cannot close the gap between mere true belief and knowledge. I suggest that a fourth conditio…Read more
-
100Bayesian chanceSynthese 186 (2): 447-474. 2012.This paper explores how the Bayesian program benefits from allowing for objective chance as well as subjective degree of belief. It applies David Lewis’s Principal Principle and David Christensen’s principle of informed preference to defend Howard Raiffa’s appeal to preferences between reference lotteries and scaling lotteries to represent degrees of belief. It goes on to outline the role of objective lotteries in an application of rationality axioms equivalent to the existence of a utility assi…Read more
-
98Do the EPR correlations pose a problem for causal decision theory?Synthese 1-12. 2017.We argue that causal decision theory is no worse off than evidential decision theory in handling entanglement, regardless of one’s preferred interpretation of quantum mechanics. In recent works, Ahmed and Ahmed and Caulton : 4315–4352, 2014) have claimed the opposite; we argue that they are mistaken. Bell-type experiments are not instances of Newcomb problems, so CDT and EDT do not diverge in their recommendations. We highlight the fact that a Causal Decision Theorist should take all lawlike cor…Read more
-
94Full Belief and Probability: Comments on Van FraassenDialogue 36 (1). 1997.As van Fraassen pointed out in his opening remarks, Henry Kyburg's lottery paradox has long been known to raise difficulties in attempts to represent full belief as a probability greater than or equal to p, where p is some number less than 1. Recently, Patrick Maher has pointed out that to identify full belief with probability equal to 1 presents similar difficulties. In his paper, van Fraassen investigates ways of representing full belief by personal probability which avoid the difficulties rai…Read more
-
93Newton’s Methodology and Mercury’s Perihelion Before and After EinsteinPhilosophy of Science 74 (5): 932-942. 2007.Newton's methodology is significantly richer than the hypothetico-deductive model. It is informed by a richer ideal of empirical success that requires not just accurate prediction but also accurate measurement of parameters by the predicted phenomena. It accepts theory-mediated measurements and theoretical propositions as guides to research. All of these enrichments are exemplified in the classical response to Mercury's perihelion problem. Contrary to Kuhn, Newton's method endorses the radical t…Read more
-
83Letters to the EditorProceedings and Addresses of the American Philosophical Association 65 (7). 1992.
-
73Ratifiability, game theory, and the principle of independence of irrelevant alternativesAustralasian Journal of Philosophy 69 (1). 1991.This Article does not have an abstract
-
68Kant on incongruent counterpartsIn James Van Cleve & Robert E. Frederick (eds.), The Philosophy of Right and Left, Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 263-313. 1991.Consider your right hand and a mirror image duplicate of it. Kant calls such pairs incongruent counterparts. According to him they have the following puzzling features. The relation and situation of the parts of your hand with respect to one another are not sufficient to distinguish it from its mirror duplicate. Nevertheless, there is a spatial difference between the two. Turn and twist them how you will, you cannot make one of them occupy the exact boundaries now occupied by the other. In his 1…Read more
-
60Rational Conceptual ChangePSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1976. 1976.
-
57
-
56The Enterprise of Knowledge: An Essay on Knowledge, Credal Probability and Chance by Isaac Levi (review)Journal of Philosophy 80 (6): 367-376. 1983.
-
55Kant and the Exact SciencesPhilosophical Review 104 (4): 587. 1995.This is a very important book. It has already become required reading for researchers on the relation between the exact sciences and Kant’s philosophy. The main theme is that Kant’s continuing program to find a metaphysics that could provide a foundation for the science of his day is of crucial importance to understanding the development of his philosophical thought from its earliest precritical beginnings in the thesis of 1747, right through the highwater years of the critical philosophy, to hi…Read more
-
46Model Selection, Simplicity, and Scientific InferencePhilosophy of Science 69 (S3). 2002.The Akaike Information Criterion can be a valuable tool of scientific inference. This statistic, or any other statistical method for that matter, cannot, however, be the whole of scientific methodology. In this paper some of the limitations of Akaikean statistical methods are discussed. It is argued that the full import of empirical evidence is realized only by adopting a richer ideal of empirical success than predictive accuracy, and that the ability of a theory to turn phenomena into accurate,…Read more
-
45Response to Kent Staley’s Comments on William Harper’s “Isaac Newton’s Scientific Method”Modern Schoolman 87 (3-4): 315-319. 2010.
-
42Counterfactuals and Two Kinds of Expected UtilityIn A. Hooker, J. J. Leach & E. F. McClennen (eds.), Foundations and Applications of Decision Theory, D. Reidel. pp. 125-162. 1978.