Paul Franceschi

In a previous paper (Compléments pour une théorie des distorsions cognitives, Journal de Thérapie Comportementale et Cognitive, 2007), we did present some elements aimed at contributing to a general theory of cognitive distortions. The latter elements, based on the reference class, the duality and the system of taxa, are applied here to generalised anxiety disorder. This allows to describe, on the one hand, the specific distortions related to generalised anxiety disorder, consistently with recent work emphasising the role played by uncertain situations with regard to future events. On the second hand, these elements allow to define one type of structured reasoning, of inductive nature, which contributes to the formation and maintenance of anxious ideas.

I describe in this paper an ontological solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with describing the Entanglement urn experiment. I restate first the Sleeping Beauty problem from a wider perspective than the usual opposition between halfers and thirders. I also argue that the Sleeping Beauty experiment is best modelled with the Entanglement urn. I draw then the consequences of considering that some balls in the Entanglement urn have ontologically different properties form normal ones. In this context, considering a Monday-waking (drawing a red ball) leads to two different situations that are assigned each a different probability. This leads to a two-sided account of the Sleeping Beauty problem. On the one hand, the first situation is handled by the argument for 1/3. On the other hand, the second situation corresponds to a reasoning that echoes the argument for 1/2 but that leads however, to different conclusions.

Dans ce qui suit, je m'attache à présenter les éléments d'une doctrine philosophique, qui peut être définie comme un contextualisme dialectique. Je m'efforce tout d'abord de définir les éléments constitutifs de cette doctrine, à travers les dualités et pôles duaux, le principe d'indifférence dialectique et le biais d'uni-polarisation. Je m'attache ensuite à souligner l'intérêt spécifique de cette doctrine au sein d'un domaine particulier de la méta-philosophie : la méthodologie utilisée pour la résolution des paradoxes philosophiques. Je décris enfin une application de cette dernière aux paradoxes suivants : le paradoxe de Hempel, le paradoxe de l'examen-surprise et l'argument de l'Apocalypse.

We propose in this article some new elements for the interpretation of Heraclitus' doctrine, concerning in particular the role of the opposition of contraries as generator of harmony, that results from Fragments 8DK and 51DK. This interpretation is based on the conceptual tool of matrices of concepts. After having described the basic elements that govern the latter, we set out to define in this conceptual framework the notions of opposition and contrary, as well as of harmony. This allows us to give an interpretation and also a justification of Heraclitus' specific doctrine, according to which the opposition of opposites generates harmony.

Attribué à Brandon Carter, l' argument de l'Apocalypse Doomsday Argument , soit DA, dans ce qui suit) a été décrit par John Leslie (1992). On peut formuler ainsi cet argument. Soit A l'événement: l'Apocalypse se produira avant l'an 2150 ; et B l'événement: l'Apocalypse ne se produira pas avant 2150 . Soit également Z l'événement: j'ai connu les années 1990 . On peut par ailleurs estimer à 40 milliards le nombre d'humains ayant existé depuis la naissance de l'humanité, jusqu'à notre époque: soit H1996 un tel nombre. On peut ainsi admettre, de manière raisonnable, qu'un humain sur dix, dans le cas de l'événement..

Several philosophical problems are based on an analogy between a real situation and a probabilistic model. Such problems are based on urn analogies. The present dissertation aims to describe and implement a methodology oriented towards the resolution of philosophical problems based on an urn analogy. This methodology is based on the use of the n-universes. To this end, I describe first the n-universes in a detailed way. I also discuss the difficulties of the theory of n-universes related to the demultiplication of the criteria and to the relation one/many between the objects and a given criterion. On the one hand, I present an application of the framework of n-universes to the Doomsday argument and to the problems recently appeared in the literature in keeping with the Doomsday argument. My concern is also with showing how the application of the framework of n-universes to several problems and thought experiments related to the Doomsday argument helps clarifying the problem data and making disappear the associated ambiguity. I present then an analysis of the following problems related to the Doomsday argument: the two urn case, God's Coin Toss, the Sleeping Beauty Problem, the Presumptuous Philosopher, Lazy Adam, and the Shooting-Room Paradox. I present lastly a solution to the Doomsday argument, based on a third route, by contrast to two types of solutions classically described. On the other hand, I present an application of the framework of n-universes to Goodman's paradox. I replace first Goodman's statement in the framework of n-universes. I propose then a solution to the paradox, based on a distinction between two different modelizations of Goodman's statement in two structurally different n-universes

I describe in this paper a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and discuss then Bostrom's Incubator gedanken. I address then the Sleeping Beauty problem. I argue that the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. I show that the same type of analysis also applies to Elga's version of the argument for 1/3. Lastly, I show that the core of the Sleeping Beauty problem is related to the problem of world reduction.

Je m'attache dans le présent article à élaborer la construction d'une classe générale de concepts, qui intègre notamment un certain nombre de contraires polarisés d'usage courant. Le point de départ de cette construction ne réside pas dans des concepts usuels, lexicalisés, c'est-à-dire pour lesquels il existe un mot correspondant dans le langage courant propre à une langue donnée. A l'inverse, la démarche qui préside à la construction de la présente classe de concepts consiste dans une définition abstraite de cette dernière, sans considération du fait que les concepts correspondants soient ou non lexicalisés. Une fois une telle construction réalisée, on est alors à même de vérifier que les concepts ainsi construits correspondent effectivement à des concepts lexicalisés, alors que d'autres ne peuvent être mis en correspondance avec aucun mot du langage courant. Finalement, la présente construction permet de proposer une taxinomie de concepts qui constitue une alternative à celle basée sur le carré sémiotique (semiotic square) défini par Greimas

I present in this paper an analysis of the Simulation Argument from a dialectical contextualist’s standpoint. This analysis is grounded on the reference class problem. I begin with describing in detail Bostrom’s Simulation Argument. I identify then the reference class within the Simulation Argument. I also point out a reference class problem, by applying the argument successively to three different reference classes: aware-simulations, imperfect simulations and immersion-simulations. Finally, I point out that there are three levels of conclusion within the Simulation Argument, depending on the chosen reference class, that yield each final conclusions of a fundamentally different nature.

I describe several applications of the theory of n-universes through several different probabilistic situations. I describe fi rst how n-universes can be used as an extension of the probability spaces used in probability theory. The extended probability spaces thus defined allow for a finer modeling of complex probabilistic situations and fi ts more intuitively with our intuitions related to our physical universe. I illustrate then the use of n-universes as a methodological tool, with two thought experiments described by John Leslie. Lastly, I model Goodman’s paradox in the framework of n-universes while also showing how these latter appear finally very close to goodmanian worlds.

In the classical version of Goodman's Paradox, the universe where the problem takes place is ambiguous. The conditions of induction being accurately described, I define then a framework of n-universes, allowing the distinction, among the criteria of a given n-universe, between constants and variables. Within this framework, I distinguish between two versions of the problem, respectively taking place: in an n-universe the variables of which are colour and time; in an n-universe the variables of which are colour, time, and space. Finally, I show that each of these versions admits a specific resolution.

In Franceschi (2002), I presented a theory based on the matrices of concepts aiming at providing an alternative to the classification proposed by Greimas, in the field of paradigmatic analysis. The problem of specifying the relationships of the concepts of love, hate and indifference, arises in this construction. I attach myself to describe the problem of the love-hate-indifference relationships in detail, and several solutions that have been proposed to solve it. Finally I expose a solution to this problem, based on an extension of the theory of matrices of concepts

This paper proposes a new framework to solve the surprise examination paradox. I survey preliminary the main contributions to the literature related to the paradox. I introduce then a distinction between a monist and a dichotomic analysis of the paradox. With the help of a matrix notation, I also present a dichotomy that leads to distinguish two basically and structurally different notions of surprise, which are respectively based on a conjoint and a disjoint structure. I describe then how Quine’s solution applies to the version of the paradox corresponding to the conjoint structure. Lastly, I expose a solution to the paradox based on the disjoint structure.

I describe several applications of the theory of n-universes through several different probabilistic situations. I describe fi rst how n-universes can be used as an extension of the probability spaces used in probability theory. The extended probability spaces thus defined allow for a finer modeling of complex probabilistic situations and fi ts more intuitively with our intuitions related to our physical universe. I illustrate then the use of n-universes as a methodological tool, with two thought experiments described by John Leslie. Lastly, I model Goodman’s paradox in the framework of n-universes while also showing how these latter appear finally very close to goodmanian worlds.

In Franceschi (2002), I presented a theory based on the matrices of concepts aiming at providing an alternative to the classification proposed by Greimas, in the field of paradigmatic analysis. The problem of specifying the relationships of the concepts of love, hate and indifference, arises in this construction. I attach myself to describe the problem of the love-hate-indifference relationships in detail, and several solutions that have been proposed to solve it. Finally I expose a solution to this problem, based on an extension of the theory of matrices of concepts.

Dans ce qui suit, je décrirai un modèle pour la formation et la maintenance des délires polythématiques rencontrés dans la schizophrénie, en adéquation avec le modèle pour les délires décrit par Brendan Maher. Les délires polythématiques y sont considérés comme les conclusions d’arguments déclenchés par l’apophénie et qui comportent des erreurs de raisonnement très communes, telles que le sophisme post hoc et le bais de confirmation. Je décris tout d’abord la structure du raisonnement qui conduit au délire de référence, de télépathie et d’influence, en distinguant entre les arguments délirants de type primaire, secondaire, tertiaire et quaternaire. Ces quatre niveaux d’arguments correspondent respectivement à une phase de nature instancielle, inductive, interprétative au niveau monothématique et, enfin, interprétative au niveau polythématique. Je m’attache ensuite à déterminer de manière précise quelles sont les étapes fallacieuses dans le raisonnement correspondant. J’expose également le rôle de l’apophénie dans l’élaboration des idées délirantes. Enfin, je m’attache à décrire le rôle joué par les hallucinations dans le présent modèle.We proceed to describe a model for the formation and maintenance of polythematic delusions encountered in schizophrenia, which is in adequation with Brendan Maher’s account of delusions. Polythematic delusions are considered here as the conclusions of arguments triggered by apophenia that include some very common errors of reasoning such as post hoc fallacy and confirmation bias. We describe first the structure of reasoning which leads to delusions of reference, of telepathy and of influence, by distinguishing between the primary, secondary, tertiary and quaternary types of delusional arguments. These four levels of arguments correspond to a stage the nature of which is repectively instantial, inductive, interpretative at a monothematic level and interpretative at a polythematic level. We also proceed to identify accurately the fallacious steps in the corresponding reasoning. We expose then the role of apophenia in the elaboration of delusional ideas. Lastly, we describe the role played by the hallucinations in the present model

English translation of a paper originally published in French in the Canadian Journal of Philosophy under the title 'Comment l'urne de Carter et Leslie se déverse dans celle de Hempel'. In this paper, I present firstly a solution to Hempel's Problem. I recall secondly the solution to the Doomsday Argument described in my previous Une Solution pour l'Argument de l'Apocalypse (Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 1998) and remark that both solutions are based on a similar line of reasoning. I show thirdly that the Doomsday Argument can be reduced to the core of Hempel's Problem.

I begin by highlighting the importance of the step size in the induction step of the sorites paradox. A careful analysis reveals that the step size can be characterised as a proper instance of the concept very small . After having accurately described the structure of sorites-susceptible predicates, I argue that the structure of the induction step in the Sorites Paradox is inherently circular. This circularity emerges in the structure of Wang's paradox and also of the classical variations of the paradox with the young, bald, etc. predicates.

I describe several applications of the theory of n-universes through several different probabilistic situations. I describe fi rst how n-universes can be used as an extension of the probability spaces used in probability theory. The extended probability spaces thus defined allow for a finer modeling of complex probabilistic situations and fi ts more intuitively with our intuitions related to our physical universe. I illustrate then the use of n-universes as a methodological tool, with two thought experiments described by John Leslie. Lastly, I model Goodman’s paradox in the framework of n-universes while also showing how these latter appear finally very close to goodmanian worlds.

Le philosophe mit le pied sur la première marche du futurotron. C'était la première fois qu'il utilisait cet appareil pour ses recherches. Bien qu'il vienne seulement d'être mis au point et qu'il ne soit encore qu'à l'état de prototype, ce futurotron pouvait décidément rendre de grands services. De nombreux chercheurs de différentes disciplines l'avaient d'ailleurs déjà utilisé de manière très fructueuse. Le philosophe prit place aux côtés du pilote sur le siège avant de la machine. - Quel est le principe de fonctionnement de la machine? demanda-t-il. - Ce serait un peu long à vous expliquer. C'est basé sur la mécanique quantique. Le pilote demanda, pressé: - Quelle époque avez-vous choisie? - Je souhaite effectuer une investigation en l'an 2150. Le pilote plaça le sélecteur sur l'année 2150. - Bien. Nous allons commencer. Etes-vous prêt? - Oui. Le futurotron se mit à ronronner. Un flash lumineux intense s'ensuivit. Au bout de quelques minutes, une image floue apparut sur l'écran géant du prototype. Peu à peu, l'image devint plus nette, et puis finalement parfaitement précise. Le philosophe se mit à observer l'écran avec une extrême acuité. Il distinguait nettement des êtres, d'apparence humaine, qui étaient assis dans ce qui semblait être une salle de conférences. En les regardant attentivement, il constata que ceux-ci présentaient les caractéristiques de notre espèce actuelle. Leur physionomie était humaine, mais pourtant il y avait chez eux quelque chose de différent... Dans ce qui paraissait être une projection publique, le philosophe distinguait nettement un faisceau lumineux et coloré qui provenait du front de l'un des êtres placé au centre de la salle, et s'élargissait pour former ce qui constituait l'image projetée d'une véritable scène tridimensionnelle. Les autres individus, assis autour, regardaient attentivement la scène. La projection était d'une netteté parfaite, et d'un réalisme saisissant. On y distinguait nettement deux personnes qui déambulaient en conversant, dans un paysage représentant une plage superbe, battue par les vagues. Le pilote interrompit soudain: - Voilà, c'est fini..

I propose in this paper a solution to the problem arising from the Simulation argument. I describe first Bostrom's Simulation Argument in detail and its inherent problem. I recall then the implicit analogy underlying the Simulation argument. I show then the inadequacy of this analogy, by pointing out a disanalogy between the human situation corresponding to the Simulation Argument and its underlying urn analogy. I point out that such disanalogy is also present within the Emerald case, another thought experiment imagined by John Leslie. I proceed then to build an alternative analogy, which fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to the Simulation Argument. I draw lastly the consequences of the presence of two alternative analogies on the conclusion of the Simulation Argument