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104Newton’s Methodology and Mercury’s Perihelion Before and After EinsteinPhilosophy of Science 74 (5): 932-942. 2007.Newton's methodology is significantly richer than the hypothetico-deductive model. It is informed by a richer ideal of empirical success that requires not just accurate prediction but also accurate measurement of parameters by the predicted phenomena. It accepts theory-mediated measurements and theoretical propositions as guides to research. All of these enrichments are exemplified in the classical response to Mercury's perihelion problem. Contrary to Kuhn, Newton's method endorses the radical t…Read more
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69Kant on incongruent counterpartsIn James Van~Cleve & Robert E. Frederick (eds.), The Philosophy of Right and Left: Incongruent Counterparts and the Nature of Space, Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 263-313. 1991.Consider your right hand and a mirror image duplicate of it. Kant calls such pairs incongruent counterparts. According to him they have the following puzzling features. The relation and situation of the parts of your hand with respect to one another are not sufficient to distinguish it from its mirror duplicate. Nevertheless, there is a spatial difference between the two. Turn and twist them how you will, you cannot make one of them occupy the exact boundaries now occupied by the other. In his 1…Read more
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35Kant on Causality, Freedom, and Objectivity (edited book)Univ of Minnesota Press. 1984.The eight papers in this book are drawn from two conferences that honored Lewis White Beck, an influential Kant scholar.
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192Model selection, simplicity, and scientific inferenceProceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3). 2002.The Akaike Information Criterion can be a valuable tool of scientific inference. This statistic, or any other statistical method for that matter, cannot, however, be the whole of scientific methodology. In this paper some of the limitations of Akaikean statistical methods are discussed. It is argued that the full import of empirical evidence is realized only by adopting a richer ideal of empirical success than predictive accuracy, and that the ability of a theory to turn phenomena into accurate,…Read more
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106Do the EPR correlations pose a problem for causal decision theory?Synthese 1-12. 2017.We argue that causal decision theory is no worse off than evidential decision theory in handling entanglement, regardless of one’s preferred interpretation of quantum mechanics. In recent works, Ahmed and Ahmed and Caulton : 4315–4352, 2014) have claimed the opposite; we argue that they are mistaken. Bell-type experiments are not instances of Newcomb problems, so CDT and EDT do not diverge in their recommendations. We highlight the fact that a Causal Decision Theorist should take all lawlike cor…Read more
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7The papers collected here are, with three exceptions, those presented at a conference on probability and causation held at the University of California at Irvine on July 15-19, 1985. The exceptions are that David Freedman and Abner Shimony were not able to contribute the papers that they presented to this volume, and that Clark Glymour who was not able to attend the conference did contribute a paper. We would like to thank the National Science Foundation and the School of Humanities of the Unive…Read more
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54Kant and the Exact SciencesPhilosophical Review 104 (4): 587. 1995.This is a very important book. It has already become required reading for researchers on the relation between the exact sciences and Kant’s philosophy. The main theme is that Kant’s continuing program to find a metaphysics that could provide a foundation for the science of his day is of crucial importance to understanding the development of his philosophical thought from its earliest precritical beginnings in the thesis of 1747, right through the highwater years of the critical philosophy, to hi…Read more
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47Model Selection, Simplicity, and Scientific InferencePhilosophy of Science 69 (S3). 2002.The Akaike Information Criterion can be a valuable tool of scientific inference. This statistic, or any other statistical method for that matter, cannot, however, be the whole of scientific methodology. In this paper some of the limitations of Akaikean statistical methods are discussed. It is argued that the full import of empirical evidence is realized only by adopting a richer ideal of empirical success than predictive accuracy, and that the ability of a theory to turn phenomena into accurate,…Read more
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24Review: Michael Woods, David Wiggins, Conditionals; Dorothy Edgington, Commentary (review)Bulletin of Symbolic Logic 6 (3): 358-360. 2000.
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146Rational belief change, Popper functions and counterfactualsSynthese 30 (1-2). 1975.This paper uses Popper's treatment of probability and an epistemic constraint on probability assignments to conditionals to extend the Bayesian representation of rational belief so that revision of previously accepted evidence is allowed for. Results of this extension include an epistemic semantics for Lewis' theory of counterfactual conditionals and a representation for one kind of conceptual change.
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26Ratifiability and Causal Decision Theory: Comments on Eells and SeidenfeldPSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1984. 1984.
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61Rational Conceptual ChangePSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1976. 1976.
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37Decisions, Games and Equilibrium SolutionsPSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988. 1988.This paper includes a survey of decision theories directed toward exploring the adequacy of alternative approaches for application to game theoretic reasoning, a review of the classic results of von Neumann and Morgenstern and Nash about equilibrium solutions, an account of a recent challenge to the idea that solutions should be equilibria, and, finally, an explicit reconstruction and defense (using the resources of causal decision theory) of the classic indirect argument for equilibrium solutio…Read more
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42Newton's Classic Deductions from PhenomenaPSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1990. 1990.I take Newton's arguments to inverse square centripetal forces from Kepler's harmonic and areal laws to be classic deductions from phenomena. I argue that the theorems backing up these inferences establish systematic dependencies that make the phenomena carry the objective information that the propositions inferred from them hold. A review of the data supporting Kepler's laws indicates that these phenomena are Whewellian colligations-generalizations corresponding to the selection of a best fitti…Read more
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18Newton's MethodologyIn Wayne C. Myrvold & Joy Christian (eds.), Quantum Reality, Relativistic Causality, and Closing the Epistemic Circle, Springer. pp. 43--61. 2009.
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1Newton's argument for universal gravitationIn I. Bernard Cohen & George E. Smith (eds.), The Cambridge Companion to Newton, Cambridge University Press. pp. 174--201. 2002.
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Causation in Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics, vol. II (edited book)Kluwer Academic Publishers. 1988.
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39Kant, Riemann, and Reichenbach on Space and GeometryProceedings of the Eighth International Kant Congress 1 423-454. 1995.Classic examples of ostensive geometrical constructions are used to clarify Kant’s account of how they provide knowledge of claims about rigid bodies we can observe and manipulate. It is argued that on Kant’s account claims warranted by ostensive constructions must be limited to scales and tolerances corresponding to our perceptual competencies. This limitation opens the way to view Riemann’s work as contributing valuable conceptual resources for extending geometrical knowledge beyond the bounds…Read more
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102Bayesian chanceSynthese 186 (2): 447-474. 2012.This paper explores how the Bayesian program benefits from allowing for objective chance as well as subjective degree of belief. It applies David Lewis’s Principal Principle and David Christensen’s principle of informed preference to defend Howard Raiffa’s appeal to preferences between reference lotteries and scaling lotteries to represent degrees of belief. It goes on to outline the role of objective lotteries in an application of rationality axioms equivalent to the existence of a utility assi…Read more
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29Isaac Newton's Scientific Method: Turning Data Into Evidence About Gravity and CosmologyOxford University Press UK. 2011.Isaac Newton's Scientific Method examines Newton's argument for universal gravity and his application of it to resolve the problem of deciding between geocentric and heliocentric world systems by measuring masses of the sun and planets. William L. Harper suggests that Newton's inferences from phenomena realize an ideal of empirical success that is richer than prediction. Any theory that can achieve this rich sort of empirical success must not only be able to predict the phenomena it purports to …Read more
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42Counterfactuals and Two Kinds of Expected UtilityIn A. Hooker, J. J. Leach & E. F. McClennen (eds.), Foundations and Applications of Decision Theory: Vol.II: Epistemic and Social Applications, D. Reidel. pp. 125-162. 1978.