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387Consilience and Natural Kind Reasoning (in Newton's Argument for Universal Gravitation) in An Intimate Relation. Studies in the History and Philosophy of ScienceBoston Studies in the Philosophy of Science 116 115-152. 1989.
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246Inferences from phenomena in gravitational physicsPhilosophy of Science 63 (3): 54. 1996.Newton's methodology emphasized propositions "inferred from phenomena." These rest on systematic dependencies that make phenomena measure theoretical parameters. We consider the inferences supporting Newton's inductive argument that gravitation is proportional to inertial mass. We argue that the support provided by these systematic dependencies is much stronger than that provided by bootstrap confirmation; this kind of support thus avoids some of the major objections against bootstrapping. Final…Read more
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109Model selection, simplicity, and scientific inferenceProceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3). 2002.The Akaike Information Criterion can be a valuable tool of scientific inference. This statistic, or any other statistical method for that matter, cannot, however, be the whole of scientific methodology. In this paper some of the limitations of Akaikean statistical methods are discussed. It is argued that the full import of empirical evidence is realized only by adopting a richer ideal of empirical success than predictive accuracy, and that the ability of a theory to turn phenomena into accurate,…Read more
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100Rational belief change, Popper functions and counterfactualsSynthese 30 (1-2). 1975.This paper uses Popper's treatment of probability and an epistemic constraint on probability assignments to conditionals to extend the Bayesian representation of rational belief so that revision of previously accepted evidence is allowed for. Results of this extension include an epistemic semantics for Lewis' theory of counterfactual conditionals and a representation for one kind of conceptual change.
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99Papier mâché problems in epistemology: A defense of strong internalismSynthese 116 (1): 27-49. 1998.I attempt to persuade the reader that externalism admits of no plausible interpretation. I argue that reliability is a concept with very different contours from epistemic justification, and that attempts to explicate justification in terms of reliability must fail. I address several other forms of externalism, and also mixed forms of justification. I then argue that externalist theories of justification cannot close the gap between mere true belief and knowledge. I suggest that a fourth conditio…Read more
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91Bayesian chanceSynthese 186 (2): 447-474. 2012.This paper explores how the Bayesian program benefits from allowing for objective chance as well as subjective degree of belief. It applies David Lewis’s Principal Principle and David Christensen’s principle of informed preference to defend Howard Raiffa’s appeal to preferences between reference lotteries and scaling lotteries to represent degrees of belief. It goes on to outline the role of objective lotteries in an application of rationality axioms equivalent to the existence of a utility assi…Read more
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67Newton’s Methodology and Mercury’s Perihelion Before and After EinsteinPhilosophy of Science 74 (5): 932-942. 2007.Newton's methodology is significantly richer than the hypothetico-deductive model. It is informed by a richer ideal of empirical success that requires not just accurate prediction but also accurate measurement of parameters by the predicted phenomena. It accepts theory-mediated measurements and theoretical propositions as guides to research. All of these enrichments are exemplified in the classical response to Mercury's perihelion problem. Contrary to Kuhn, Newton's method endorses the radical t…Read more
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59Do the EPR correlations pose a problem for causal decision theory?Synthese 1-12. 2017.We argue that causal decision theory is no worse off than evidential decision theory in handling entanglement, regardless of one’s preferred interpretation of quantum mechanics. In recent works, Ahmed and Ahmed and Caulton : 4315–4352, 2014) have claimed the opposite; we argue that they are mistaken. Bell-type experiments are not instances of Newcomb problems, so CDT and EDT do not diverge in their recommendations. We highlight the fact that a Causal Decision Theorist should take all lawlike cor…Read more
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57Ratifiability, game theory, and the principle of independence of irrelevant alternativesAustralasian Journal of Philosophy 69 (1). 1991.This Article does not have an abstract
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47Letters to the EditorProceedings and Addresses of the American Philosophical Association 65 (7). 1992.
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41Kant on incongruent counterpartsIn James Van Cleve & Robert E. Frederick (eds.), The Philosophy of Right and Left, Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 263-313. 1991.Consider your right hand and a mirror image duplicate of it. Kant calls such pairs incongruent counterparts. According to him they have the following puzzling features. The relation and situation of the parts of your hand with respect to one another are not sufficient to distinguish it from its mirror duplicate. Nevertheless, there is a spatial difference between the two. Turn and twist them how you will, you cannot make one of them occupy the exact boundaries now occupied by the other. In his 1…Read more
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39The Enterprise of Knowledge: An Essay on Knowledge, Credal Probability, and ChanceJournal of Philosophy 80 (6): 367-376. 1983.
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35Counterfactuals and Two Kinds of Expected UtilityIn A. Hooker, J. J. Leach & E. F. McClennen (eds.), Foundations and Applications of Decision Theory, D. Reidel. pp. 125-162. 1978.
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35Newton's Classic Deductions from PhenomenaPSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1990. 1990.I take Newton's arguments to inverse square centripetal forces from Kepler's harmonic and areal laws to be classic deductions from phenomena. I argue that the theorems backing up these inferences establish systematic dependencies that make the phenomena carry the objective information that the propositions inferred from them hold. A review of the data supporting Kepler's laws indicates that these phenomena are Whewellian colligations-generalizations corresponding to the selection of a best fitti…Read more
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32Response to Kent Staley’s Comments on William Harper’s “Isaac Newton’s Scientific Method”Modern Schoolman 87 (3/4): 315-319. 2010.
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32Decisions, Games and Equilibrium SolutionsPSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988. 1988.This paper includes a survey of decision theories directed toward exploring the adequacy of alternative approaches for application to game theoretic reasoning, a review of the classic results of von Neumann and Morgenstern and Nash about equilibrium solutions, an account of a recent challenge to the idea that solutions should be equilibria, and, finally, an explicit reconstruction and defense (using the resources of causal decision theory) of the classic indirect argument for equilibrium solutio…Read more
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31Kant and the Exact SciencesPhilosophical Review 104 (4): 587. 1995.This is a very important book. It has already become required reading for researchers on the relation between the exact sciences and Kant’s philosophy. The main theme is that Kant’s continuing program to find a metaphysics that could provide a foundation for the science of his day is of crucial importance to understanding the development of his philosophical thought from its earliest precritical beginnings in the thesis of 1747, right through the highwater years of the critical philosophy, to hi…Read more
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31Rational Conceptual ChangePSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1976. 1976.
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28A note on universal instantiation in the Stalnaker Thomason conditional logic and M type modal systemsJournal of Philosophical Logic 3 (4). 1974.