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40Poincaré’s Probabilities, Kantified, Post-Modernized (review)Biological Theory 9 (1): 113-114. 2014.One of a pair of reviews of Michael Strevens’ book, Tychomancy: Inferring Probability from Causal Structure, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 2013, pp 265, $39.95 hbk, ISBN 978-0674073111. See also Bookstein (2014, this issue)
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102Bootstraps and probabilitiesJournal of Philosophy 77 (11): 691-699. 1980.The Joumal 0f Philosophy, Vol. 77, No. 11, Seventy—Seventh Annual Meeting American Philosophical Association, Eastern Division (Nov., 1980), 691-699.
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159Theoretical Equivalence and the Semantic View of TheoriesPhilosophy of Science 80 (2): 286-297. 2013.Halvorson argues through a series of examples and a general result due to Myers that the “semantic view” of theories has no available account of formal theoretical equivalence. De Bouvere provides criteria overlooked in Halvorson’s paper that are immune to his counterexamples and to the theorem he cites. Those criteria accord with a modest version of the semantic view that rejects some of Van Fraassen’s apparent claims while retaining the core of Patrick Suppes’s proposal. I do not endorse any v…Read more
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33We present evidence of a potentially serious source of error intrinsic to all spotted cDNA microarrays that use IMAGE clones of expressed sequence tags (ESTs). We found that a high proportion of these EST sequences contain 5V-end poly(dT) sequences that are remnants from the oligo(dT)-primed reverse transcription of polyadenylated mRNA templates used to generate EST cDNA for sequence clone libraries. Analysis of expression data from two single-dye cDNA microarray experiments showed that ESTs who…Read more
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119Kevin T. Kelly and Clark Glymour. Why Bayesian Confirmation Does Not Capture the Logic of Scientific Justification
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77We show that if any number of variables are allowed to be simultaneously and independently randomized in any one experiment, log2(N ) + 1 experiments are sufficient and in the worst case necessary to determine the causal relations among N ≥ 2 variables when no latent variables, no sample selection bias and no feedback cycles are present. For all K, 0 < K &lt.
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312Determinism, ignorance, and quantum mechanicsJournal of Philosophy 68 (21): 744-751. 1971.is every bit as intelligible and philosophically respectable as many other doctrines currently in favor, e.g., the doctrine that mental events are identical with brain events; the attempt to give a linguistic construal of this latter doctrine meets many of the same sorts of difficulties encountered above (see Hempel, op. cit.). Secondly, I think that evidence for universal determinism may not, as a matter of fact, be so hard to come by as one might imagine. It is a striking fact about our world …Read more
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34Causal maps and Bayes nets: A cognitive and computational account of theory-formationIn Peter Carruthers, Stephen Stich & Michael Siegal (eds.), The Cognitive Basis of Science, Cambridge University Press. pp. 117--132. 2002.
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158Few people have thought so hard about the nature of the quantum theory as has Jeff Bub,· and so it seems appropriate to offer in his honor some reflections on that theory. My topic is an old one, the consistency of our microscopic theories with our macroscopic theories, my example, the Aspect experiments (Aspect et al., 1981, 1982, 1982a; Clauser and Shimony, l978;_Duncan and Kleinpoppen, 199,8) is familiar, and my sirnplrcation of it is borrowed. All that is new here is a kind of diagonalizatio…Read more
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25Hans Reichenbach's probability logicIn Dov M. Gabbay, John Woods & Akihiro Kanamori (eds.), Handbook of the History of Logic, Elsevier. pp. 10--357. 2004.
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257Theory and EvidencePrinceton University Press. 1980.The Description for this book, Theory and Evidence, will be forthcoming.
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23Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of J STOR’s Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. J STOR’s Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non—commercial use.
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6Why I am not a BayesianIn Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings, Routledge. 2010.
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46A general principle for good pedagogic strategy is this: other things equal, make the essential principles of the subject explicit rather than tacit. We think that this principle is routinely violated in conventional instruction in statistics. Even though most of the early history of probability theory has been driven by causal considerations, the terms “cause” and “causation” have practically disappeared from statistics textbooks. Statistics curricula guide students away from the concept of cau…Read more
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63The hierarchies of knowledge and the mathematics of discoveryMinds and Machines 1 (1): 75-95. 1991.Rather than attempting to characterize a relation of confirmation between evidence and theory, epistemology might better consider which methods of forming conjectures from evidence, or of altering beliefs in the light of evidence, are most reliable for getting to the truth. A logical framework for such a study was constructed in the early 1960s by E. Mark Gold and Hilary Putnam. This essay describes some of the results that have been obtained in that framework and their significance for philosop…Read more
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20Through their transcript products genes regulate the rates at which an immense variety of transcripts and subsequent proteins occur. Understanding the mechanisms that determine which genes are expressed, and when they are expressed, is one of the keys to genetic manipulation for many purposes, including the development of new treatments for disease. Viewing each gene in a genome as a distinct variable that is either on or off, or more realistically as a continuous variable, the values of some of…Read more
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152Probability and the Explanatory Virtues: Figure 1British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 66 (3): 591-604. 2015.Recent literature in philosophy of science has addressed purported notions of explanatory virtues—‘explanatory power’, ‘unification’, and ‘coherence’. In each case, a probabilistic relation between a theory and data is said to measure the power of an explanation, or degree of unification, or degree of coherence. This essay argues that the measures do not capture cases that are paradigms of scientific explanation, that the available psychological evidence indicates that the measures do not captur…Read more
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224A semantics and methodology for ceteris paribus hypothesesErkenntnis 57 (3): 395-405. 2002.Taking seriously the arguments of Earman, Roberts and Smith that ceteris paribus laws have no semantics and cannot be tested, I suggest that ceteris paribus claims have a kind of formal pragmatics, and that at least some of them can be verified or refuted in the limit.
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15The use of ceteris paribus clauses in philosophy and in the sciences has a long and fascinating history. Persky (1990) traces the use by economists of ceteris paribus clauses in qualifying generalizations as far back as William Petty’s Treatise of Taxes and Contributions (1662). John Cairnes’ The Character and Logical Method of Political Economy (1857) is credited with enunciating the idea that the conclusions of economic investigations hold “only in the absence of disturbing causes”.1 His Leadi…Read more
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100Inductive inference from theory Laden dataJournal of Philosophical Logic 21 (4). 1992.Kevin T. Kelly and Clark Glymour. Inductive Inference from Theory-Laden Data
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32Osiander's psychologyBehavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (4): 199-200. 2011.Bayesian psychology follows an old instrumentalist tradition most infamously illustrated by Osiander's preface to Copernicus's masterpiece. Jones & Love's (J&L's) criticisms are, if anything, understated, and their proposals overoptimistic
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2713 Actual Causes and Thought ExperimentsIn J. K. Campbell, M. O'Rourke & H. S. Silverstein (eds.), Causation and Explanation, Mit Press. pp. 4--43. 2007.
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