The standard Bayesian solution to the paradox of the ravens maintains that the degree of confirmation provided by seeing a non-black non-raven is positive but negligible compared to that provided by seeing a black raven. I show that, unless we impose severe and unmotivated restrictions on the subject’s priors, this has the consequence that the cumulative confirmation provided by all the non-black non-ravens the subject expects to see is non-negligible compared to the cumulative confirmation prov…
Read moreThe standard Bayesian solution to the paradox of the ravens maintains that the degree of confirmation provided by seeing a non-black non-raven is positive but negligible compared to that provided by seeing a black raven. I show that, unless we impose severe and unmotivated restrictions on the subject’s priors, this has the consequence that the cumulative confirmation provided by all the non-black non-ravens the subject expects to see is non-negligible compared to the cumulative confirmation provided by all the black ravens the subject expects to see. If this is so, however, then the paradox retains its full force.
