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41A plan-based causal decision theoryAnalysis 82 (2): 264-272. 2022.In ‘An argument against causal decision theory’, Jack Spencer shows that standard formulations of causal decision theory run afoul of his Guaranteed Principle. In the sequential choice problem he employs to make this case, the transgression stems from an awkward discrepancy between how causalists typically value present vs future acts. This note suggests a version of causal decision theory that avoids this incongruity and so respects the Guaranteed Principle in Spencer’s problem. However, this f…Read more
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17Review of Richard Pettigrew's Accuracy and the Laws of Credence (review)Philosophy of Science. forthcoming.
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46Richard Pettigrew. Accuracy and the Laws of CredencePhilosophy of Science 85 (2): 316-320. 2018.
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24Dynamic consistency in the logic of decisionPhilosophical Studies 177 (12): 3923-3934. 2020.Arif Ahmed has recently argued that causal decision theory is dynamically inconsistent and that we should therefore prefer evidential decision theory. However, the principal formulation of the evidential theory, Richard Jeffrey’s Logic of Decision, has a mixed record of its own when it comes to evaluating plans consistently across time. This note probes that neglected record, establishing the dynamic consistency of evidential decision theory within a restricted class of problems but then illustr…Read more
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25Bradley Conditionals and Dynamic ChoiceSynthese 199 (3-4): 6585-6599. 2021.One of the main contributions of Richard Bradley’s book is an elegant extension of Jeffrey’s Logic of Decision that countenances the evaluation of conditional prospects. This extension offers a promising new setting in which to model dynamic choice. In Bradley’s framework, plans can be understood as conditionals of an appropriate sort, while dynamic consistency can be viewed as providing a constraint on the evaluation of conditionals across time. In this paper, we study connections between plann…Read more
Chapel Hill, NC, United States of America
Areas of Specialization
Decision Theory |
Philosophy of Social Science |
Philosophy of Probability |
Formal Epistemology |