Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • “Führer befiehl, wir folgen dir!” Charismatic Leaders in Extremist Groups
    with Michael Baurmann and Rainer Cramm
    In Thomas Christiano, Ingrid Creppell & Jack Knight (eds.), Morality, Governance, and Social Institutions: Reflections on Russell Hardin, Springer Verlag. pp. 259-287. 2018.
    If we want to understand how extremist group ideologies are established, we have to comprehend the social processes which form the basis of the emergence and distribution of such beliefs. In our chapter, we present an innovative approach to examining these processes and explaining how they function: with the method of computer-based simulation of opinion formation, we develop heuristic explanatory models which help to generate new and interesting hypotheses. The focus is thereby not on individua…Read more
  •  26
    Philosophy of science for science communication in twenty-two questions
    with David Lanius
    In Annette Leßmöllmann, Marcelo Dascal & Thomas Gloning (eds.), Science Communication. pp. 3-28. 2020.
    Philosophy of science attempts to reconstruct science as a rational cognitive enterprise. In doing so, it depicts a normative ideal of knowledge acquisition and does not primarily seek to describe actual scientific practice in an empirically adequate way. A comprehensive picture of what good science consists in may serve as a standard against which we evaluate and criticize actual scientific practices. Such a normative picture may also explain why it is reasonable for us to trust scientists – to…Read more
  • Accounting for Possibilities in Decision Making
    In Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn & Sven Hansson (eds.), The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis, Springer Verlag. 2016.
  •  15
    Applying argumentation to structure and visualize multi-dimensional opinion spaces
    with Michael Hamann, Tamara Mchedlidze, and Sophie von Schmettow
    Argument and Computation 10 (1): 23-40. 2018.
  • Ethical Aspects of Climate Engineering
    with Sebastian Cacean
    KIT Scientific Publishing,. 2012.
    This study investigates the ethical aspects of deploying and researching into so-called climate engineering methods, i.e. large-scale technical interventions in the climate system with the objective of offsetting anthropogenic climate change. The moral reasons in favour of and against R&D into and deployment of CE methods are analysed by means of argument maps. These argument maps provide an overview of the CE controversy and help to structure the complex debate.
  •  37
    Ethical Aspects of Climate Engineering. Karlsruhe
    with Sebastian Cacean
    KIT Scientific Publishing. 2012.
    This study investigates the ethical aspects of deploying and researching into so-called climate engineering methods, i.e. large-scale technical interventions in the climate system with the objective of offsetting anthropogenic climate change. The moral reasons in favour of and against R&D into and deployment of CE methods are analysed by means of argument maps. These argument maps provide an overview of the CE controversy and help to structure the complex debate.
  •  150
    On Degrees of Justification
    Erkenntnis 77 (2): 237-272. 2012.
    This paper gives an explication of our intuitive notion of strength of justification in a controversial debate. It defines a thesis' degree of justification within the bipolar argumentation framework of the theory of dialectical structures as the ratio of coherently adoptable positions according to which that thesis is true over all coherently adoptable positions. Broadening this definition, the notion of conditional degree of justification, i.e.\ degree of partial entailment, is introduced. Thu…Read more
  •  96
    Evaluating Dialectical Structures
    Journal of Philosophical Logic 38 (3): 283-312. 2009.
    This paper develops concepts and procedures for the evaluation of complex debates. They provide means for answering such questions as whether a thesis has to be considered as proven or disproven in a debate or who carries a burden of proof. While being based on classical logic, this framework represents an (argument-based) approach to non-monotonic, or defeasible reasoning. Debates are analysed as dialectical structures, i.e. argumentation systems with an attack- as well as a support-relationshi…Read more
  •  32
    In diesem Beitrag möchte ich begründen, warum das 2-Grad-Ziel der internatio- nalen Klimapolitik einen vernünftigen Umgang mit unscharfen Grenzen darstellt. Ich werde zunächst skizzieren, aus welchen Überlegungen das 2-Grad-Ziel ent- standen ist und wie es Eingang fand in die internationale Klimapolitik. Daraufhin werde ich darlegen, dass sich traditionelle Entscheidungsanalyseverfahren (Kos- tennutzenanalyse, kurz: KNA) nicht problemlos auf klimapolitische Fragestel- lungen anwenden lassen…Read more
  •  20
    Prediction
    In Ian Jarvie & Jesus Zamora-Bonilla (eds.), Handbook of Philosophy of Social Science, Sage Publications. 2011.
    Predictive success as an aim of science -- On the very possibility of prediction in the social sciences -- Empirical facts about social prediction: its mode, object and performance -- Understanding poor forecast performance
  •  78
    Truth in Evidence and Truth in Arguments without Logical Omniscience
    British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 67 (4): 1117-1137. 2016.
    Science advances by means of argument and debate. Based on a formal model of complex argumentation, this article assesses the interplay between evidential and inferential drivers in scientific controversy, and explains, in particular, why both evidence accumulation and argumentation are veritistically valuable. By improving the conditions for applying veritistic indicators , novel evidence and arguments allow us to distinguish true from false hypotheses more reliably. Because such veritistic ind…Read more
  •  30
    Based on the theory of dialectical structures, I review the concept of degree of justification of a partial position a proponent may hold in a controversial debate. The formal concept of degree of justification dovetails with our pre-theoretic intuitions about a thesis' strength of justification. The central claim I'm going to defend in this paper maintains that degrees of justification, as defined within the theory of dialectical structures, correlate with a proponent position's verisimilitude.…Read more
  •  44
    Is epistemic trust of veritistic value?
    with Michael Baurmann and Rainer Cramm
    Ethics and Politics 15 (2): 25-41. 2013.
    Epistemic trust figures prominently in our socio-cognitive practices. By assigning different degrees of competence to agents, we distinguish between experts and novices and determine the trustworthiness of testimony. This paper probes the claim that epistemic trust furthers our epistemic enterprise. More specifically, it assesses the veritistic value of competence attribution in an epistemic community, i.e., in a group of agents that collaboratively seek to track down the truth. The results, obt…Read more
  •  85
    Are climate models credible worlds? Prospects and limitations of possibilistic climate prediction
    European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2): 191-215. 2015.
    Climate models don’t give us probabilistic forecasts. To interpret their results, alternatively, as serious possibilities seems problematic inasmuch as climate models rely on contrary-to-fact assumptions: why should we consider their implications as possible if their assumptions are known to be false? The paper explores a way to address this possibilistic challenge. It introduces the concepts of a perfect and of an imperfect credible world, and discusses whether climate models can be interpreted…Read more
  •  26
    With the evidence for anthropogenic climate change piling up, suggesting that climate impacts of GHG emissions might have been underestimated in the past (Allison et al. 2009; WBGU 2009), and mitigation policies apparently lagging behind what many scientists consider as necessary reductions in order to prevent dangerous climate change, the debate about intentional climate change, or “climate engineering”, as we shall say in the following, has gained momentum in the past years. While efforts to t…Read more
  •  6
    Vorwort
    with Anna Wehofsits, David Löwenstein, and Dirk Koppelberg
    In Anna Wehofsits, David Löwenstein, Dirk Koppelberg & Gregor Betz (eds.), Weiter Denken - Über Philosophie, Wissenschaft Und Religion, De Gruyter. 2015.
  • Dieser Beitrag diskutiert Oskar Morgensterns These von der Unmöglichkeit von Wirtschaftsprognose. Nach einer kritischen Rekonstruktion Morgensterns Argumente wird diese These in ihrer starken, apriorischen Lesart zurückgewiesen. Demgegenüber gestatten es die Ergebnisse empirischer Prognoseevaluationen, Morgensterns Überlegungen als kontingente Erklärungen des Scheiterns makroökonomischer Vorhersagen umzuinterpretieren. Der Beitrag schließt deshalb mit einer provokanten Konklusion, die bereits Mo…Read more
  •  116
    This paper investigates in how far a theory of dialectical structures sheds new light on the old problem of giving a satisfying account of the fallacy of petitio principii, or begging the question. It defends that (i) circular argumentation on the one hand and petitio principii on the other hand are two distinct features of complex argumentation, and that (ii) it is impossible to make general statements about the defectiveness of an argumentation that exhibits these features. Such an argumentati…Read more
  •  81
    This paper shows how complex argumentation, analyzed as dialectical structures, can be evaluated within a Bayesian framework by interpreting them as coherence constraints on subjective degrees of belief. A dialectical structure is a set of arguments (premiss-conclusion structure) among which support- and attack-relations hold. This approach addresses the observation that some theses in a debate can be better justified than others and thus fixes a shortcoming of a theory of defeasible reasoning w…Read more
  •  23
  •  96
    Underdetermination, Model-ensembles and Surprises: On the Epistemology of Scenario-analysis in Climatology
    Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 40 (1): 3-21. 2009.
    As climate policy decisions are decisions under uncertainty, being based on a range of future climate change scenarios, it becomes a crucial question how to set up this scenario range. Failing to comply with the precautionary principle, the scenario methodology widely used in the Third Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seems to violate international environmental law, in particular a provision of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To pl…Read more
  •  14
    Is Epistemic Trust of Veritistic Value?
    Etica E Politica 15 (2): 25-41. 2013.
    Epistemic trust figures prominently in our socio-cognitive practices. By assigning different degrees of competence to agents, we distinguish between experts and novices and determine the trustworthiness of testimony. This paper probes the claim that epistemic trust furthers our epistemic enterprise. More specifically, it assesses the veritistic value of competence attribution in an epistemic community, i.e., in a group of agents that collaboratively seek to track down the truth. The results, obt…Read more
  • Climate Engineering
    In Armin Grunwald (ed.), Handbuch Technikethik, Metzler. pp. 254-257. 2013.
  •  34
    Wo Meinungen aufeinanderprallen, um Verständnis geworben und Überzeugungsarbeit geleistet wird, sind Begründungen nicht weit. Für jede Überzeugung gibt es immer ein, zwei Gründe, die mit Gegengründen konfrontiert und, im Gegenzug, mit weiteren Überlegungen verteidigt werden usw. usf. Schnell sind wir verwirrt und drohen, ohne uns der "Grammatikregeln" vernünftigen Argumentierens zu besinnen, nicht mehr durchzublicken. Die Theorie dialektischer Strukturen leistet einen Beitrag zur Grammatik vernü…Read more