Jason Hilton

In this chapter we examine an agent-based model of social care costs in the context of an ageing population. The model brings together statistical demographic modelling with a spatial agent-based model including a rudimentary economic model. Agents undergo the core demographic processes of fertility, mortality, and migration, and as they age they may develop varying levels of social care need. Building on the example presented in the previous chapter, this model increases the complexity of agent behaviours to allow for a more nuanced examination of the drivers of care demand and supply amongst an ageing populace. The results demonstrate that alongside the expected outcomes of social care cost rising as the population ages, the age of retirement has an unexpected impact on cost due to the size of the care burden being shouldered by healthy spouses of ill agents.

Modern demography, while growing increasingly interdisciplinary over years, has largely remained a data-focused discipline. Demographic research often proceeds under the premises of logical empiricism, in which data is the primary focus on theoretical development or innovation receive far less emphasis. In this chapter, we will investigate some demographic models which have used agent-based approaches successfully to produce useful insight. We will discuss their methods and results in detail, and outline how these models have used simulation to push us closer to a model-based demography.