Andre Sevenius Nilsen

Newcomb’s paradox is still debated despite its deceptively simple setup. Here we introduce a two-stage policy framework parametrized by pre-entry and in-room 1-boxing propensities (α,β), predictor error rate ε, and uncertainty about the predictor’s timing (λ). An expected utility analysis shows that 1-boxing dominates across the joint uncertainty space of these parameters (except at the extremes), even under high risk aversion. Thus, we argue that the paradox is fundamentally epistemic: the rational response depends on the agent’s beliefs about predictor accuracy and about which stage of deliberation the predictor targets. We suggest that 2-boxers either believe that the predictor Omega is unreliable, or that the choice in-room is completely uncaused (i.e. unpredictable). If such a belief is due to a valuation of one’s own free will equivalent to or above $1,000, then we argue that even under maximin reasoning, 1-boxing is optimal as being wrong about one’s own deterministic nature is far more costly for 2-boxers than 1-boxers.

Several theories link consciousness to complex cortical dynamics, as suggested by comparison of brain signal diversity between conscious states and states where consciousness is lost or reduced. In particular, Lempel-Ziv complexity, amplitude coalition entropy and synchrony coalition entropy distinguish wakefulness and REM sleep from deep sleep and anesthesia, and are elevated in psychedelic states, reported to increase the range and vividness of conscious contents. Some studies have even found correlations between complexity measures and facets of self-reported experience. As suggested by integrated information theory and the entropic brain hypothesis, measures of differentiation and signal diversity may therefore be measurable correlates of consciousness and phenomenological richness. Inspired by these ideas, we tested three hypotheses about EEG signal diversity related to sleep and dreaming. First, diversity should decrease with successively deeper stages of non-REM sleep. Second, signal diversity within the same sleep stage should be higher for periods of dreaming vs. non-dreaming. Third, specific aspects of dream contents should correlate with signal diversity in corresponding cortical regions. We employed a repeated awakening paradigm in sleep deprived healthy volunteers, with immediate dream report and rating of dream content along a thought-perceptual axis, from exclusively thought-like to exclusively perceptual. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess how signal diversity varied with sleep stage, dreaming and thought-perceptual rating. Signal diversity decreased with sleep depth, but was not significantly different between dreaming and non-dreaming, even though there was a significant positive correlation between Lempel-Ziv complexity of EEG recorded over the posterior cortex and thought-perceptual ratings of dream contents.